NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,177+0.35%BTC$86,184+1.68%VIX15.31−6.59%live tape · as of 07:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.
CHEF · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 5,156 employees
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
116.42 USD
Screen close, 2026-10-02 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-02 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 116.42 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 93.09, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price116.42 USD
Fair value93.09
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown110.70+5.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup90.75+28.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. holds its Markdown at $116.42. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-02
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$116.42
Valuation
55.18 trailing · 38.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Chefs' Warehouse,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium food distributor priced past its value
Walk into any serious restaurant kitchen and the specialty cheeses, oils and charcuterie arrive through a focused US distributor that has built real relationships with chefs. Revenue is still rising at 11 percent, return on equity sits at 14 percent and the ethical screen is clean. Yet the shares trade at 36 times forward earnings with a profit margin of just 2 percent, well above our fair value of 76.88 dollars against a current price of 97.08 dollars.
That leaves no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. The business serves a defensive niche, yet paying a multiple that assumes sustained high growth while margins remain thin leaves little room for the normal bumps that hit food distribution.
Analyst targets sit higher still, but price paid matters more than consensus. The combination of elevated valuation and thin profitability creates the classic risk that growth slows or costs rise and the multiple compresses quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHEF trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$110.70+0.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-25Markup$110.20+13.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-24Markup$97.09+7.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Markup$90.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Markup$90.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$90.75Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
