An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $110.20
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. holds its Markup at $110.20.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-07
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price
$110.20
Valuation
52.48 trailing · 36.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.39
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$110.20
52.48 P/E · 36.79 fwd
Our fair value
$91.45
17% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$123.00
+12% to current
Target low $80.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $125.00
▲ current $110.20 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$110.20
you are here
Conservative
$72.00
-35%
Analyst avg
$123.00
+12%
Our fair value
$91.45
-17%
Analyst high
$125.00
+13%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
12.90%
Profit margin
2.09%
Debt to equity
146.03
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 9 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 48.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 24.7%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 25.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Premium food distributor priced past its value
Walk into any serious restaurant kitchen and the specialty cheeses, oils and charcuterie arrive through a focused US distributor that has built real relationships with chefs. Revenue is still rising at 11 percent, return on equity sits at 14 percent and the ethical screen is clean. Yet the shares trade at 36 times forward earnings with a profit margin of just 2 percent, well above our fair value of 76.88 dollars against a current price of 97.08 dollars.
That leaves no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. The business serves a defensive niche, yet paying a multiple that assumes sustained high growth while margins remain thin leaves little room for the normal bumps that hit food distribution.
Analyst targets sit higher still, but price paid matters more than consensus. The combination of elevated valuation and thin profitability creates the classic risk that growth slows or costs rise and the multiple compresses quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CHEF trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markup$97.09+7.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Markup$90.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Markup$90.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$90.75Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$80.69
+5.0%
·
$1,050
+5.0%
2 months
$64.53
+31.4%
·
$1,314
+31.4%
3 months
$63.97
+32.5%
·
$1,325
+32.5%
6 months
$62.57
+35.5%
·
$1,355
+35.5%
1 year
$62.66
+35.3%
·
$1,353
+35.3%
2 years
$38.76
+118.7%
·
$2,187
+118.7%
3 years
$32.11
+164.0%
·
$2,640
+164.0%
5 years
$32.72
+159.1%
·
$2,591
+159.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CHEF does next, these words stay.
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. · CHEF · Markup · $110.20
Recorded 2026-08-07 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
