The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Public Service Enterprise Group
PEG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $36.2B · 13,189 employees
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, operates in electric and gas utility, and nuclear generation businesses in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
72.60 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Public Service Enterprise Group holds its Markdown at $72.60. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$72.60
Valuation
18.06 trailing · 15.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.52
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.00%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $77.54 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility Looks Steady Yet Fails Debt Test
Utilities are meant to feel like the lights staying on in a storm, steady and essential. Public Service Enterprise Group delivers that profile yet we pass because it fails the ethical screen on debt ratio and offers barely any margin of safety at current levels.
Revenue is growing 19 percent with an 18 percent profit margin and 13 percent ROE, while the forward multiple sits at 16.8 times. The moderate moat and consensus buy rating from nineteen analysts do not move the needle when the ethical flag is raised and fair value sits just one percent above the $78.64 share price.
High debt in a regulated business can turn stable earnings into a trap when rates rise or regulators push back. The modest valuation premium is not enough compensation for that structural concern. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PEG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown$72.61-3.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-08-08Markdown · changed$75.54-5.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-07-18Distribution$79.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-07-03Distribution$79.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$79.48Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
