Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price108.74 USD
Fair value85.22
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup103.76+4.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-19Read Accumulation103.76+4.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-20Read Markdown108.95-0.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup109.27-0.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ameren holds its Markup at $108.74. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$108.74
Valuation
18.24 trailing · 17.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.47%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ameren's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $85.22 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady utility but debt and price block the way
Utilities are sold as the calm option when markets turn choppy, yet Ameren sits 17 percent above our fair value at 111 dollars versus 93. Forward earnings sit at 19 times while revenue edges up just 4 percent a year and return on equity reaches only 12 percent. That combination leaves little margin for the surprises that always hit regulated networks.
The moderate moat and 18 percent profit margin look respectable on paper, but they do not offset the stretched valuation or the fact that fifteen analysts still push a 121 dollar target. We pass because the numbers simply do not line up with the price on offer.
On top of the valuation gap the company fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio. That screen exists for a reason and we follow it. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markup · changed$103.76+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-10-12Markdown$102.19+2.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-10-02Markdown$99.39-6.5%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-09-19Markdown$106.25-2.5%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-08-20Markdown · changed$108.95-2.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-20Markup$111.55+2.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-18Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-16Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-03Markup$109.27+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
