Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price102.83 USD
Fair value104.17
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Markdown108.31-5.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup106.26-3.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Consolidated Edison holds its Markdown at $102.83. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$102.83
Valuation
16.89 trailing · 15.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.63%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Consolidated Edison's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $104.17 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lights stay on but debt and price bite
Think of Consolidated Edison as the company keeping New York lights on and homes warm through winter storms. The business delivers steady regulated returns with 6% revenue growth and a 13% profit margin yet trades at 112 dollars against a fair value nearer 102. We pass because the premium valuation leaves no margin of safety and the ethical screen flags excessive debt.
The narrow moat and 9% return on equity look typical for a mature utility yet forward earnings sit at 17 times with only hold-rated analyst targets around 109. Debt levels break the ethical test outright so the name drops from consideration regardless of the defensive cash flows.
Peak earnings in a low-growth sector can trap investors when multiples compress and interest costs rise. Currency and regulatory shifts add further pressure on an already stretched balance sheet. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ED trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$102.83-5.1%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $111.
2026-08-27Markdown · changed$108.31-3.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $111.
2026-07-27Markup$112.37+5.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $111.
2026-07-18Markup$106.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $111.
2026-07-03Markup$106.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$106.26Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.