ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive
Consumer Discretionary · Automotive Retail · US
$92.96
Close 2025-12-31
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

UNKNOWN MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 86%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$77.4B
Trailing P/E
30.30
Forward P/E
25.70
Rev Growth
+10.2%
Profit Margin
14.3%
ROE
Analyst Target
$109.70
Recommendation
BUY
About O’Reilly Automotive

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company offers new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also provides auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company offers enhanced services and programs consisting of used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; referrals to trusted local repair shops; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. It offers its products to do-it-yourself and professional service providers for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. It offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brand names. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $93, 29% above fair value of $72. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 9% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.51%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.04%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 44.5
Score Quality: 40.0
Score Combined: 31.7
Fair Value Est: $72.00 · Margin of Safety: -22.5% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

Unlock with Membership
Opportunity Scores
Valuation71.7
Quality39.0
Cash Flow21.2
Moat40.0
Balance Sheet50.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity99.2
Compliance58.6
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 41.8 · Rank: #4047
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-290.86Pending--
2026-04-290.690.72+3.6%
2026-02-040.720.71-2.1%
2025-10-220.830.85+2.2%
2025-07-230.780.78-0.3%
2025-04-230.660.62-5.2%
2025-02-050.650.63-2.5%
2024-10-230.770.76-1.2%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$4.6B$604.2M$978.2M$2.3B$841.6M0.72
2025-12-31$4.4B$605.2M$966.7M$2.3B$828.6M0.72
2025-09-30$4.7B$725.9M$1.1B$2.4B$976.1M0.86
2025-06-30$4.5B$668.6M$1.0B$2.3B$914.5M0.78
2025-03-31$4.1B$538.5M$864.1M$2.1B$741.5M0.63
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-18MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDDirector2,595$230.1K
2026-05-15PERLMAN DANA NDirector2,035$180.1K
2026-05-15WHITFIELD FRED ALANDirector2,035$180.1K
2026-05-15DEBEERS KIMBERLY A.Director2,035$180.1K
2026-05-15MURPHY JOHN RAYMONDDirector2,035$180.1K
2026-05-15HENDRICKSON THOMAS TDirector2,035$180.1K
2026-05-15SASTRE MARIA AMALIADirector2,035$180.1K
2026-05-08BECKHAM BRAD WALTERChief Executive Officer13,635$233.4K
2026-05-08BECKHAM BRAD WALTERChief Executive Officer13,635$1.3M
2026-05-07HOPPER PHILIP MOfficer3,700$66.5K
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.65.2M$6.0B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC54.7M$5.0B0.1%
State Street Corporation36.7M$3.4B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC24.6M$2.3B0.0%
FMR, LLC18.4M$1.7B0.0%
Principal Financial Group, Inc.18.1M$1.7B0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC16.7M$1.5B0.0%
Nuveen, LLC15.1M$1.4B0.0%
Morgan Stanley14.9M$1.4B0.0%
Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation13.0M$1.2B0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
5
17
4
27 analysts
2 Months Ago
5
18
5
29 analysts
Last Month
5
18
5
29 analysts
Current
5
16
4
26 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$84.5B
Price/Book
-71.56
Beta
0.584
Analysts
23
Total Revenue (TTM)
$18.2B
Total Debt
$8.7B
Earnings Growth
+16.1%
Rec. Mean
1.65
Short Ratio
4.18
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
93,973

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

Upgrade to Elite
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 31.7 (P16 — top 83.7% of scored tickers). Unknown Moat. Ethical FAIL. 23 analysts at Buy.
Price: $92.96 | Target: $109.70 (+18%) | Fair Value: $72.00 (+-23%)
Score
32
Moat
UNKNOWN
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+18%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+10.2%
Profit Margin0.0%
Forward P/E25.7
Market Cap$77.4B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-29$0.86Pending
2026-04-29$0.69$0.72+3.6%
2026-02-04$0.72$0.71-2.1%
2025-10-22$0.83$0.85+2.2%
2025-07-23$0.78$0.78-0.3%
2025-04-23$0.66$0.62-5.2%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $79.02 (-15%) | Entry: $92.96
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($109.70, 23 analysts)
10$929.60+$167.40 (18%)1.2R
50$4,648.00+$837.00 (18%)1.2R
100$9,296.00+$1,674.00 (18%)1.2R
To Fair Value ($72.00)
10$929.60+$-209.60 (-23%)-1.5R
50$4,648.00+$-1,048.00 (-23%)-1.5R
100$9,296.00+$-2,096.00 (-23%)-1.5R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (4.18 days to cover)
The Verdict
O’Reilly Automotive holds a unknown competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
45.4
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.0%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-2.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
1.33
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-19.0%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.4x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
25.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
AZO0.773
GPC0.446
XLP0.435
TSCO0.423
HD0.402
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
4326.SR-0.161
ARIG.BH-0.150
FIGR-0.145
BRUN-0.143
TABREED.AE-0.141
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Monday
Worst Day
Tuesday
Best Month
Jan
Worst Month
Dec
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.13978663746721517
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
-2.5%
Beat Drift Positive %
0.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-3.5%
3M Return
-4.7%
6M Return
-9.2%
12M Return
-1.2%
Momentum Rank
#3347
Momentum Signal
FLAT

Get our daily market read free. Join thousands of traders.

Free Explorer Access