ORLY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $72.4B · 93,973 employees
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
87.40 USD
At the last full screen 2026-07-24
Screened 2026-07-24 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
O’Reilly Automotive holds its Distribution at $87.40. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$87.40
Valuation
28.47 trailing · 24.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.53%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.04%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $92.13 fair value, 10.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto parts retailer stumbles on debt screen
Every time a car needs fresh brake pads or a new filter, O'Reilly sits behind the counter supplying the parts. Yet the business trips our ethical screen on debt levels and offers no compelling reason to look past that red flag.
We pass because the 23.8 times forward earnings multiple leaves scant margin of safety even with 10 percent revenue growth and 14 percent margins. The ethical failure on leverage outweighs any surface appeal from analyst targets.
High debt creates clear exposure in a cyclical auto sector where spending can slow sharply, and that combination keeps the name firmly in avoid territory.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORLY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-24Distribution$86.05+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$86.05+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Distribution$86.05-4.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$90.33+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-07-03Distribution$90.33+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$90.33Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
