AZO · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $49.7B · 78,000 employees
AutoZone, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
3,046.44 USD
At the last full screen 2026-07-19
Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
AutoZone holds its Distribution at $3,046.44. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$3,046.44
Valuation
20.96 trailing · 17.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
63.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 63.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.87%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 29% discount to our $3,926.18 fair value, 8.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto Parts Chain Fails Debt Ethics Test
Every time a family car needs a new alternator or brake pads, AutoZone is the shop most drivers head to first. Yet we pass on the name because it fails our ethical screen on debt ratio. The business delivers steady 8% revenue growth and 12% margins at a 17.4x forward multiple, but heavy borrowing rules it out regardless of the 29% gap to fair value.
The unknown moat and lack of consensus rating leave little cushion if consumer spending on repairs slows. Cyclical auto demand can look cheap on paper only to reveal peak earnings that later compress.
High leverage amplifies any downturn in miles driven or parts pricing pressure, which is exactly why the ethical flag matters here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AZO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-22Distribution$3,046.44-2.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4205.
2026-07-18Distribution$3,116.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4205.
2026-07-03Distribution$3,116.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3,116.43Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.