Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR holds its Accumulation at $10.45. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$10.45
Valuation
12.29 trailing · 18.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.61
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Capital Markets
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.5% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nomura connects capital flows but crosses our line
Think of Nomura as the quiet broker moving Japanese savings into global deals and back again. The business clears wealth management, investment products and wholesale trading for clients worldwide, yet it fails our ethical screen on capital markets grounds. We pass for that reason alone.
Revenue is rising 28 percent and the 17 percent profit margin looks solid on paper. Still the shares trade at 16.8 times forward earnings with only a one percent discount to our fair value of 9.30 dollars, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. Return on equity sits at 10 percent with a narrow moat.
Japan exposure adds currency swings and the single analyst target of 10 dollars offers little comfort. Capital markets businesses remain structurally excluded regardless of the growth rate. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NMR trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Accumulation · changed$9.72-2.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$9.93+13.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Accumulation$8.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-03Accumulation$8.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$8.73Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
