An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · LPL Financial Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides an integrated platform of brokerage and investment advisory services to independent financial advisors and financial advisors at institutions in the U…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $342.40
LPL Financial Holdings Inc holds its Markup at $342.40.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price
$342.40
Valuation
29.85 trailing · 11.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.51
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$342.40
29.85 P/E · 11.67 fwd
Our fair value
$418.63
22% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$397.00
+16% to current
Target low $300.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $542.00
▲ current $342.40 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$342.40
you are here
Conservative
$330.20
-4%
Analyst avg
$397.00
+16%
Our fair value
$418.63
+22%
Analyst high
$542.00
+58%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
35.00%
Profit margin
5.05%
Debt to equity
132.28
Analyst consensus
Buy · 14 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: capital markets. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityExcluded industry: Capital MarketsFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
LPL Financial fails our ethical screen outright
Independent advisors in every state route client money through platforms that bundle brokerage and advice. LPL Financial delivers exactly that service at scale, with revenue up 35 percent and a 20 percent return on equity. On paper the 11 times forward earnings and narrow moat look reasonable next to the 29 percent gap to our fair value.
We pass because the business sits in capital markets, an industry our screen excludes on principle. No valuation discount or analyst target at 401 dollars changes that line. The ethical filter exists to keep us out of entire sectors regardless of growth or cash generation.
Profit margins sit at just 5 percent, leaving little room for regulatory or market shocks common in this field. Currency and interest-rate swings add further pressure that the narrow moat does little to offset. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $416. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$288.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $416.
2026-07-03Distribution$288.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$288.49Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming LPLA
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
5 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
2025-04-02
Val Hoyle
Democrat
Sale
1K–15K
11 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$288.73
+0.9%
$0.30
$1,010
+1.0%
2 months
$312.20
-6.7%
$0.30
$934
-6.6%
3 months
$289.31
+0.7%
$0.30
$1,008
+0.8%
6 months
$386.67
-24.7%
$0.60
$755
-24.5%
1 year
$377.84
-22.9%
$1.20
$774
-22.6%
2 years
$278.66
+4.5%
$2.40
$1,054
+5.4%
3 years
$201.92
+44.2%
$3.60
$1,460
+46.0%
5 years
$135.76
+114.5%
$5.70
$2,187
+118.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LPLA does next, these words stay.
LPL Financial Holdings Inc · LPLA · Markup · $342.40
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically