Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 08:38 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
National Grid plc holds its Markdown at $78.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$78.06
Valuation
17.70 trailing · 11.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
59.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 59.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $97.75 fair value, weak competitive moat, 2.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Heavy debt pulls down this utility giant
Power lines stretch across the country and the bills keep coming in every month. National Grid should feel like a safe bet for steady cash flows yet the numbers show a business stuck in low gear with revenue growing just 2 percent and a weak moat that offers little protection.
We pass because the ethical screen flags the debt ratio and the returns tell the same story. ROE sits at only 8 percent while the forward multiple of 12.7 times offers no margin for the risks that come with it. Analysts may like the name but our screen exists for exactly these cases.
The real danger is that regulated utilities can look cheap right up to the point where rising interest costs or regulatory squeezes turn the low growth into a trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NGG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$80.62+0.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-08-06Distribution$80.26-2.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Distribution$81.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Distribution$81.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$81.86Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
