Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-19 · Permanent

Nexa Resources S.A. logoNexa Resources S.A. NEXA

Clears the common standard

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Nexa Resources S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the zinc mining and smelting business worldwide.

The label
Markup

read at $12.19

Nexa Resources S.A. holds its Markup at $12.19.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateElevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 30 days
Price$12.19
Valuation7.72 trailing · 3.43 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 70.0
Beta0.92

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Read at
$12.19
7.72 P/E · 3.43 fwd
Our fair value
$16.00
31% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$14.50
+19% to current
Target low $6.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $16.00
▲ current $12.19 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$16.9$10.5$4.1TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONConservative$16.00 +32%Our fair value$16.00 +32%Analyst high$16.00 +32%Analyst avg$14.50 +19%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$12.19
you are here
Conservative
$16.00
+31%
Analyst avg
$14.50
+19%
Our fair value
$16.00
+31%
Analyst high
$16.00
+31%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.

Revenue growth41.70%
Profit margin6.44%
Debt to equity130.22
Analyst consensusHold · 8 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 116.8%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Zinc prices swing hard and miners pay

Every load of zinc leaving a South American pit rides a price rollercoaster that has flattened plenty of miners before. Nexa shows solid revenue growth of 42 percent, a 24 percent return on equity and a forward multiple of just 3.4 times, yet the opportunity rating sits at none. In a cyclical metals business the low multiple often flags peak earnings rather than a bargain, which is why we pass.

The balance sheet and ethical screen both clear, and the smelting side adds some stability, but those factors do not change the industry rhythm. Analyst targets cluster around 14 dollars while our own fair value sits higher, yet the rating stays none because the cycle, not the company, still sets the outcome.

Risk sits in the usual places for this sector: metal prices, energy costs and currency moves can erase margins fast. A 6 percent profit margin leaves little room when volumes or prices turn, and history shows low multiples in mining frequently mark the top of the cycle rather than the start of a rerating. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E3.4x
cheap for a company growing this fast
Trailing P/E7.7x
very cheap relative to earnings
Revenue growth41.7%
growing very fast
Profit margin6.4%
thin but positive margins
Return on equity24.4%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity1.30
a meaningful debt load worth watching
Current ratio0.85
below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets
Beta0.92
steadier than the market
Market cap$1.6B

The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Related securities · others in NEXA's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

NEXA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-18 Markup $13.73 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.

2026-07-03 Markup $13.73 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Markup $13.73 Entry 1

The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $13.31 -8.7% · $913 -8.7%
2 months $11.85 +2.5% · $1,025 +2.5%
3 months $11.47 +5.9% · $1,059 +5.9%
6 months $8.19 +48.4% · $1,484 +48.4%
1 year $4.96 +145.0% $0.10 $2,470 +147.0%
2 years $7.60 +59.9% $0.10 $1,612 +61.2%
3 years $5.33 +128.0% $0.10 $2,299 +129.9%
5 years $9.55 +27.3% $0.67 $1,342 +34.2%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NEXA does next, these words stay.

Nexa Resources S.A. · NEXA · Markup · $12.19
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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