Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.08 USD
Fair value16.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup13.73-12.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nexa Resources S.A. holds its Distribution at $12.08. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 30 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 30 days
Price at the screen
$12.08
Valuation
5.78 trailing · 3.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.11%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.43%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Zinc prices swing hard and miners pay
Every load of zinc leaving a South American pit rides a price rollercoaster that has flattened plenty of miners before. Nexa shows solid revenue growth of 42 percent, a 24 percent return on equity and a forward multiple of just 3.4 times, yet the opportunity rating sits at none. In a cyclical metals business the low multiple often flags peak earnings rather than a bargain, which is why we pass.
The balance sheet and ethical screen both clear, and the smelting side adds some stability, but those factors do not change the industry rhythm. Analyst targets cluster around 14 dollars while our own fair value sits higher, yet the rating stays none because the cycle, not the company, still sets the outcome.
Risk sits in the usual places for this sector: metal prices, energy costs and currency moves can erase margins fast. A 6 percent profit margin leaves little room when volumes or prices turn, and history shows low multiples in mining frequently mark the top of the cycle rather than the start of a rerating. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NEXA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markup$13.90+14.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-08-06Markup$12.19-11.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Markup$13.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Markup$13.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$13.73Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
