Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price146.23 USD
Fair value238.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Markdown157.79-7.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup159.76-8.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc holds its Markdown at $146.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$146.23
Valuation
21.35 trailing · 12.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
8.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
25.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 25.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.16%
Below 5%
Only 3.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 63.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Strong Drug Growth Yet No Real Edge
A pill that steadies someone with tardive dyskinesia can turn a small biotech into a steady cash machine. Neurocrine has done exactly that with INGREZZA, posting 42 percent revenue growth, 22 percent profit margins and matching return on equity. The narrow moat and a 13.6 times forward earnings multiple still leave the shares looking fairly valued once analyst targets are taken into account, so we pass.
The business clears our ethical screen without issue and sits well below our internal fair value. Yet strong buy ratings from twenty eight analysts already bake in most of the upside to two hundred dollars, leaving little margin for error if growth slows.
Drug makers always carry binary risks around patents, competition and new trial results that can erase years of progress in a single announcement. Those factors keep any position from qualifying here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NBIX trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$157.79-13.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-08-06Markup$182.83+14.4%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-18Markup$159.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $194.
2026-07-03Markup$159.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$159.76Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
