Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-03
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price73.31 USD
Fair value88.10
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution79.44-7.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Zoetis holds its Distribution at $73.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$73.31
Valuation
11.96 trailing · 11.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
59.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 59.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.21%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.98%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $88.10 fair value, strong competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pet meds leader stumbles on debt screen
Every time a vet reaches for a vaccine or a farmer treats livestock, Zoetis supplies the medicine that keeps animals healthy. The business posts a 28% profit margin, 68% ROE and a strong moat, yet we pass.
Forward earnings sit at just 10.4 times with revenue growth of 3%, numbers that look steady on paper. The ethical screen fails on the debt ratio, so we walk away regardless of analyst targets near 112.
High returns can mask leverage that leaves little room for shocks. We skip names that fail basic screens even when the rest of the story appears clean.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ZTS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-19Distribution$73.31-1.5%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-08-19Distribution$74.39-6.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-18Distribution$79.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-03Distribution$79.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$79.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
