NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep
The Screen · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co ADR
TAK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $58.3B
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products in Japan and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price18.26 USD
Fair value15.37
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-14Read Markup17.02+7.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.91+14.8% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co ADR holds its Accumulation at $18.26. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$18.26
Valuation
N/A trailing · 34.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.47%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.84%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.37%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Big Pharma Name Trading Well Above Value
Picture a Japanese drugmaker selling treatments for gut disorders and rare diseases. Patients still need the medicines, yet the shares sit at seventeen dollars while our fair value sits at thirteen. That leaves a negative margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none.
Revenue edges up only four percent and both profit margin and return on equity sit in negative territory. A narrow moat and a thirty-two times forward earnings multiple on such thin growth do not justify the premium. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still fail our test.
Three analysts call it a strong buy with a twenty-one dollar target, but peak earnings and a stretched multiple often signal the opposite of value. Currency moves and pipeline setbacks add further uncertainty. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TAK trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup$18.26+7.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$17.02+7.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
