NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep
The Screen · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Viatris
VTRS · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $19.0B · 30,000 employees
Viatris Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a healthcare company in North America, Europe, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, rest of Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.50 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 16.50 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 23.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.50 USD
Fair value23.00
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Accumulation16.50+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-16Read Distribution17.65-6.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup16.48+0.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Viatris holds its Accumulation at $16.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$16.50
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $23.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 4.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Generic Pills Mask Heavy Debt Burden
Picture a pharmacy shelf stacked with familiar pills that once eased costs for patients worldwide. Viatris trades at a forward multiple of just 6.5 times yet we pass. Weak moat, negative profit margins of minus 2 percent and return on equity of minus 2 percent show a business that is not compounding value despite 8 percent revenue growth.
The ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear fail. That single red line overrides the apparent margin of safety to fair value and keeps us away even when eight analysts lean buy with an $18 median target.
Low multiples on eroding returns often signal a trap rather than a bargain. Currency swings and integration risks add further pressure in a sector where scale alone rarely rescues weak balance sheets. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VTRS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 81%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 81%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Markup$16.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 81%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Markup$16.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.48Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
