Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-24
Options put/call open interest 1.03, read 2026-10-18
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price218.01 USD
Fair value127.50
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-06Read Markup56.26+287.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 19% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution47.44+359.5% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Moderna holds its Markup at $218.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$218.01
Valuation
N/A trailing · -49.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
18.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 18.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
16.34%
Below 5%
16.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Moderna clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 16% of its income right now is interest earned on a large cash position, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-20. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $127.50 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 2.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 41.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
mRNA Pioneer Now Trades Above Its Worth
Think of Moderna as the firm that delivered the first big mRNA shot yet now hunts for its next hit while revenue purity fails our ethical screen. We pass because the shares sit 27% above our $45 fair value, the forward multiple is negative, and the moat looks weak.
Revenue grew 260% yet the profit margin sits at minus 144% and return on equity at minus 37%. Nineteen analysts call it a hold with a median target at $45, numbers that line up with our own read.
High cyclical demand for one product line leaves earnings exposed and the ethical flag adds a second reason to stay clear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRNA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-18Markup$218.01+10.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-10-11Markup$197.28+0.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-10-02Markup$197.28+35.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 35.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-05Markup$145.13+158.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 158.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$56.26+18.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Distribution$47.44+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Distribution$47.44+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$47.44Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
