MRNA
Moderna
Health Care · Biotechnology · US
$54.35
Close 2026-05-10
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$21.6B
Trailing P/E
Forward P/E
-13.10
Rev Growth
+260.2%
Profit Margin
-143.6%
ROE
-36.6%
Analyst Target
$43.37
Recommendation
HOLD
About Moderna

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis. It has strategic alliances and collaborations with Merck & Co., Inc; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; immatics N.V.; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and OpenAI. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Opportunity Summary
Fails ethical screen (Revenue purity). Ranks better than 49% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.11%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.19%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.23%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.16%)FAIL
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 33.0
Score Quality: 33.8
Score Combined: 29.2
· Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation50.0
Quality25.0
Cash Flow0.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet100.0
Debt Purity68.0
Liquid Purity42.6
Rev Purity0.0
Compliance40.5
Tier: WATCH · Score: 37.2 · Rank: #4594
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-31-2.09Pending--
2026-04-30-3.88-3.40+12.4%
2026-02-13-2.60-2.11+18.9%
2025-11-06-2.16-0.51+76.4%
2025-08-01-2.97-2.13+28.3%
2025-05-01-3.11-2.52+18.9%
2025-02-14-2.73-2.91-6.7%
2024-11-07-1.940.03+101.5%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$389.0M-$1.3B-$1.3B-$566.0M-$1.4B-3.40
2025-12-31$676.0M-$826.0M-$724.0M$224.0M-$857.0M-2.11
2025-09-30$1.0B-$200.0M-$135.0M$795.0M-$260.0M-0.51
2025-06-30$137.0M-$825.0M-$760.0M$18.0M-$907.0M-2.13
2025-03-31$107.0M-$971.0M-$924.0M$17.0M-$1.1B-2.52
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-15HOGE STEPHENPresident53,336$1.0M
2026-05-15HOGE STEPHENPresident53,336$2.6M
2026-05-01HUSSAIN SHAH ABBASDirector5,682$265.0K
2026-04-30HUSSAIN SHAH ABBASDirector16,233--
2026-04-30NABEL ELIZABETH GDirector16,233--
2026-04-30HORNING SANDRADirector16,233--
2026-04-30TALLETT ELIZABETH EDirector4,058--
2026-04-30NADER FRANCOIS E.Director12,174--
2026-04-30RUBENSTEIN DAVID MDirector8,116--
2026-04-02MOCK JAMES MChief Financial Officer1,453--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
FMR, LLC45.7M$2.1B0.1%
Blackrock Inc.29.6M$1.4B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC22.9M$1.1B0.1%
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO20.0M$936.9M0.1%
Capital World Investors18.7M$876.5M0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC15.6M$732.1M0.0%
State Street Corporation14.9M$696.7M0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC9.4M$442.3M0.0%
Two Sigma Investments, LP9.1M$426.0M0.0%
Morgan Stanley8.5M$397.1M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
2
2
16
2
23 analysts
2 Months Ago
2
2
17
2
24 analysts
Last Month
1
2
18
2
24 analysts
Current
2
2
16
3
24 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Recent Price History
2026-05-10
$54.35
2026-05-09
$54.35
2026-05-08
$48.79
2026-05-08
$48.79
5D Range
May 8
May 8
May 9
May 10
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$14.7B
Price/Book
2.14
Beta
1.056
Analysts
19
Total Revenue (TTM)
$2.2B
Total Debt
$1.3B
Rec. Mean
2.96
Short Ratio
10.34
Short % Float
0.2%
Employees
4,700

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 29.2 (P12 — top 88.5% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical FAIL. 20 analysts at Hold.
Price: $54.35 | Target: $43.20 (+-21%)
Score
29
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+-21%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+260.2%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE-36.6%
Forward P/E-13.1
Market Cap$21.6B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-31$-2.09Pending
2026-04-30$-3.88$-3.40+12.4%
2026-02-13$-2.60$-2.11+18.9%
2025-11-06$-2.16$-0.51+76.4%
2025-08-01$-2.97$-2.13+28.3%
2025-05-01$-3.11$-2.52+18.9%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $46.20 (-15%) | Entry: $54.35
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($43.20, 20 analysts)
10$543.50+$-111.50 (-21%)-1.4R
50$2,717.50+$-557.50 (-21%)-1.4R
100$5,435.00+$-1,115.00 (-21%)-1.4R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (10.34 days to cover)
The Verdict
Moderna holds a weak competitive moat and is growing revenue at +260.2%.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
46.9
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Quality: CONSISTENT_BEATER
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-7.3%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-9.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-1.27
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-85.6%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
85
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.9x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
87.5%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Jan
Worst Month
Aug
Fri-Mon Effect
0.019155276952280448
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
-0.6%
Beat Drift Positive %
33.3%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-7.3%
3M Return
-6.9%
6M Return
+110.3%
12M Return
+76.0%
Momentum Rank
#672
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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