An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of therapeutics in the United States, Europe, Canada, and Japan.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $117.25
Incyte holds its Accumulation at $117.25.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price
$117.25
Valuation
16.56 trailing · 13.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.76
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 59.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $138.75 fair value, strong competitive moat, 20.90% revenue growth.
Read at
$117.25
16.56 P/E · 13.44 fwd
Our fair value
$138.75
18% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$111.00
-5% to current
Target low $71.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $140.00
▲ current $117.25 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$117.25
you are here
Conservative
$138.75
+18%
Analyst avg
$111.00
-5%
Our fair value
$138.75
+18%
Analyst high
$140.00
+19%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Revenue growth
20.90%
Profit margin
26.71%
Debt to equity
0.70
Analyst consensus
Buy · 22 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Strong numbers but the screen says no
Picture a patient in the US relying on a daily pill to manage a rare blood cancer. Incyte supplies that treatment and has built a strong moat with 21% revenue growth, 27% profit margins and 31% ROE. Yet we pass on the shares.
The ethical screen flags a clear fail on accounts receivable. That single issue overrides the attractive 13.4x forward earnings and the 18% gap to our fair value. Analyst targets sit even lower at $111, but the screen is decisive.
Risk sits with any biotech that stretches payment terms in a tightly regulated sector. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
INCY trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$102.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-07-03Accumulation$102.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$102.38Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · INCY
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-05-19
CLANCY PAUL J.
Director
15,000
$1,423,950
2026-05-19
CLANCY PAUL J.
Director
15,000
$1,267,950
2026-05-08
BAKER BROS ADVISORS L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
