2026-10-25
Molina Healthcare, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 12:02 UTC
The Screen · Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
MOH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $11.0B · 19,000 employees
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Not yet scored209.15 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 12:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price209.15 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.77)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 209.15 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 211.70, over the last year.
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.77, read 2026-10-28
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price209.15 USD
Fair value211.70
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-16Read Markup212.50-1.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 18% rise in 5 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution180.85+15.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown180.85+15.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Accumulation199.63+4.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. holds its Markup at $209.15. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days |
| Price at the screen | $209.15 |
| Valuation | 2,335.56 trailing · 21.57 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.78 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 25.38% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 25.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 25.75% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 25.8% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 49.99% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 50.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Molina Healthcare, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Molina Healthcare, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near the screened price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsSafety-net health plans priced above value
Molina runs the managed care plans that deliver Medicaid and Medicare coverage to low-income families across the United States. Picture the quiet contractor that actually processes the claims and keeps the state programmes running day to day.
The numbers give no reason to step in. Revenue is falling 4 percent, profit margins sit at zero and return on equity is just 4 percent. At 24 times forward earnings the shares trade 8 percent above our fair value with none of the growth or returns that would normally justify the premium.
Policy shifts on reimbursement rates and enrolment can swing results quickly in this regulated corner of healthcare. Thin margins leave little buffer if costs rise or rates are cut. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 21.6xa premium valuation |
| Trailing P/E | 2,335.6xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.09 |
| EPS, forward | 9.75 |
| Revenue growth | -5.7%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 0.0%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -0.2%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | 6.38% |
| Debt to equity | 0.95moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.68healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 0.78steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.06% |
| 52-week range | 121.06 - 244.89 |
| Market cap | $11.0B |
| Employees | 19,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMOH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Markup $210.20
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187.
2026-10-21
Markup $210.20
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Markup $210.20
-1.1% Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Markup $212.50
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Markup $212.50
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17
Markup $212.50
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16
Markup · changed $212.50
+7.9% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15
Distribution $196.93
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14
Distribution $196.93
+8.9% Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11
Distribution · changed $180.85
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $187.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- California Healthcare Stocks Tied To State Funding And Senior Care Demand Yahoo Finance · 5d ago
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock Drops After Q3 Results Expose Margin Squeeze Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- MOH Q3 deep dive: Medicaid margin stabilization and rate cycle drive cautious optimism Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- 5 must-read analyst questions from Molina Healthcare’s Q3 earnings call Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) Stock May Trade At A Discount Despite Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $185.19 | +6.3% | · | $1,063 | +6.3% |
| 2 months | $145.88 | +35.0% | · | $1,350 | +35.0% |
| 3 months | $149.19 | +32.0% | · | $1,320 | +32.0% |
| 6 months | $166.90 | +18.0% | · | $1,180 | +18.0% |
| 1 year | $295.69 | -33.4% | · | $666 | -33.4% |
| 2 years | $307.98 | -36.1% | · | $640 | -36.1% |
| 3 years | $284.34 | -30.7% | · | $693 | -30.7% |
| 5 years | $248.39 | -20.7% | · | $793 | -20.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MOH does next, these words stay.
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