Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price31.98 USD
Fair value34.95
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Accumulation30.93+3.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup28.26+13.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Oscar Health, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $31.98. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 106 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 106 days
Price at the screen
$31.98
Valuation
25.21 trailing · 17.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
19.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
52.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 52.4% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Health tech plans still chasing real profits
Picture a startup promising to fix America's messy health insurance with slick apps and data tools, yet still losing money on every policy sold. Oscar Health is growing revenue at 53% a year and clears the ethical screen, but the business has yet to turn a profit and return on equity sits at minus 3%.
We pass because the shares trade above our fair value at $29.10 against $26.25, with a forward multiple of 19.2 times earnings on zero margins. Ten analysts rate it a hold with a median target of $21, and no economic moat is visible. Fast top-line growth alone does not justify stretching the valuation when cash is still flowing out.
The main risks sit in execution and competition. Scaling a tech-enabled insurer in a heavily regulated market has already produced losses, and any slowdown in membership could widen the gap between price and value further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OSCR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 16.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-07Markup$26.54-6.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markup$28.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 89%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markup$28.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$28.26Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
