Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.42, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price417.42 USD
Fair value424.47
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup432.20-3.4% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Markdown389.63+7.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-09-01Read Accumulation378.88+10.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup350.08+19.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Humana holds its Markup at $417.42. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$417.42
Valuation
39.18 trailing · 24.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
34.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 34.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
15.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.78%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Humana's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 34% of its assets, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $424.47 fair value, weak competitive moat, 26.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.7% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $424.47, with a range of $281.96 to $488.14, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Medicare Insurer Fails Price and Ethics Test
Picture a retiree in Florida picking a Medicare Advantage plan and handing over premiums that Humana then invests in interest bearing securities. The cash flow looks reliable on the surface, yet the business sits on a weak moat and delivers only a one percent profit margin with six percent return on equity.
We pass. Shares trade at four hundred dollars while fair value sits near three hundred and forty seven, a thirteen percent premium. Revenue growth of twenty four percent cannot mask the thin returns or the forward multiple of twenty five times earnings, and the ethical screen flags the securities holdings as a clear fail.
Analyst targets cluster around three hundred and forty two, below where the stock now trades. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HUM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$417.42-0.1%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup$417.87+1.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markup$410.41-1.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$414.50+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$414.50+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$414.50-1.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$422.07-2.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$432.20+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$432.20+10.9%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$389.63+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.