Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price400.02 USD
Fair value389.75
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-01Read Accumulation378.88+5.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup350.08+14.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Humana holds its Accumulation at $400.02. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$400.02
Valuation
37.88 trailing · 24.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
34.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 34.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
15.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $389.75 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 26.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Medicare Insurer Fails Price and Ethics Test
Picture a retiree in Florida picking a Medicare Advantage plan and handing over premiums that Humana then invests in interest bearing securities. The cash flow looks reliable on the surface, yet the business sits on a weak moat and delivers only a one percent profit margin with six percent return on equity.
We pass. Shares trade at four hundred dollars while fair value sits near three hundred and forty seven, a thirteen percent premium. Revenue growth of twenty four percent cannot mask the thin returns or the forward multiple of twenty five times earnings, and the ethical screen flags the securities holdings as a clear fail.
Analyst targets cluster around three hundred and forty two, below where the stock now trades. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HUM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
2026-08-01Markup$381.15+8.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
2026-07-18Markup$350.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 60%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $263.
2026-07-03Markup$350.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$350.08Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.