Mechanics Bancorp operates as the holding company for Mechanics Bank that provides banking services in California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.It offers various checking and savings accounts, retirement accounts, mone…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.82 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mechanics Bancorp holds its Markdown at $15.82. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 271 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 271 days
Price at the screen
$15.82
Valuation
12.17 trailing · 13.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional bank that serves real communities fails us
Picture a family in California parking pay cheques in a local bank that also operates across Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. Mechanics Bancorp looks like the steady neighbourhood lender that keeps small-business doors open. Yet the business hits our ethical screen on the simple fact it is a bank, so we pass without further debate.
Revenue grew 31 percent and margins sit at 39 percent, yet return on equity is only 10 percent and the forward multiple of 13.5 times leaves almost no margin of safety at the current price. Three analysts call it a buy with a $17 target, one dollar above the last trade, but none of that overcomes the sector flag.
Low returns on equity often signal a cyclical value trap where earnings look peak and multiples compress later. Currency and rate swings add further pressure that the numbers do not fully capture. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCHB trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$15.82-5.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$16.69+8.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Markdown$15.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Markdown$15.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$15.43Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.