MAT · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $4.3B · 31,000 employees
Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.92 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mattel, Inc. holds its Markdown at $14.92. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 53 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 53 days
Price at the screen
$14.92
Valuation
11.13 trailing · 9.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
35.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 35.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.84%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Toys business looks cheap but cycle trap looms
Every time a parent buys a doll or a board game the purchase rides on steady household budgets that rise and fall with jobs and wages. Mattel sits squarely in that consumer cyclical lane, posting 4 percent revenue growth, a 9 percent profit margin and 24 percent return on equity at a forward multiple of 8.9 times.
Those figures plus an ethical pass and a 25 percent margin of safety to fair value of 17.84 still produce an opportunity rating of none. Analyst targets sit near 18 yet the low multiple on a leisure name signals peak earnings rather than a durable bargain.
Cyclical exposure means any slowdown in spending quickly compresses margins and the unknown moat leaves little protection when trends shift. The setup carries real downside even if the headline numbers look tidy.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$14.92+4.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$14.30-2.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Accumulation$14.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Accumulation$14.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$14.65Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
