Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-24
Options put/call open interest 0.19, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.37 USD
Fair value6.10
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation4.92+9.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-10Read Markdown5.36+0.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-09Read Distribution5.68-5.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution while volume still accumulates
2026-07-02Read Accumulation5.55-3.2% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $5.37. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$5.37
Valuation
37.43 trailing · 22.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
93.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 93.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
53.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 53.7% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.31%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Peloton Interactive,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 93% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PTON does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Peloton Pedals Through Flat Growth and Slim Margins
Everyone bought a Peloton during lockdown, yet few still use it now the gyms have reopened. That reality shows up in the numbers, with revenue crawling ahead just 1% and profit margins stuck at 1%. The shares trade almost exactly at our fair value, leaving no meaningful margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none despite the ethical screen clearing.
Analysts still cluster around a buy rating and a $7 target, but forward earnings sit at 24.9 times with no visible moat to protect them. In a consumer cyclical business this thin, even small shifts in spending habits or competition can erase what little profit exists. The gap between the story and the cash flow is wide.
Currency moves, rising interest rates and a return to normal leisure patterns all sit on the downside. Without stronger top-line momentum the valuation offers little cushion when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PTON trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$5.24+3.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-18Accumulation$5.06+2.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-11Accumulation · changed$4.92-1.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-02Markdown$4.97-7.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-09-10Markdown · changed$5.36-5.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-08-09Distribution · changed$5.68+2.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Accumulation$5.55+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Accumulation$5.55+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$5.55Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
