An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $68.24
Lonza Group AG holds its Markup at $68.24.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price
$68.24
Valuation
35.73 trailing · 24.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.85
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $69.79 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$68.24
35.73 P/E · 24.61 fwd
Our fair value
$69.79
2% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$78.57
+15% to current
Target low $78.37Analyst target rangeTarget high $86.91
▲ current $68.24 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$68.24
you are here
Conservative
$69.79
+2%
Analyst avg
$78.57
+15%
Our fair value
$69.79
+2%
Analyst high
$86.91
+27%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
11.20%
Profit margin
-1.60%
Debt to equity
51.12
Analyst consensus
Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 10.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Swiss CDMO priced right at fair value
Picture a Swiss factory turning raw biotech ideas into real medicines for clients across the globe. Lonza does exactly that as a contract manufacturer, yet the shares sit only a whisker below our fair value with a slim one percent margin of safety.
We pass because the business is overvalued on a forward multiple of 24.7 times while posting a negative four percent profit margin and a modest ten percent return on equity. A moderate moat and clean ethical screen are not enough to offset the lack of real discount.
The main risks are thin returns and any slowdown in biotech outsourcing that could keep margins under pressure. Three analysts see a median target of seventy nine dollars, yet that alone does not create a compelling case.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
LZAGY trades on PNK (the company is based in Switzerland). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$61.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Markup$61.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$61.53Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$61.19
+1.4%
$0.64
$1,025
+2.5%
2 months
$64.42
-3.7%
$0.64
$973
-2.7%
3 months
$61.18
+1.4%
$0.64
$1,025
+2.5%
6 months
$65.16
-4.8%
$0.64
$962
-3.8%
1 year
$69.49
-10.7%
$0.64
$902
-9.8%
2 years
$54.91
+13.0%
$1.12
$1,151
+15.1%
3 years
$60.85
+2.0%
$1.56
$1,045
+4.5%
5 years
$71.23
-12.9%
$2.25
$903
-9.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LZAGY does next, these words stay.
Lonza Group AG · LZAGY · Markup · $68.24
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
