An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $258.03
Natera Inc holds its Markup at $258.03.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days
Price
$258.03
Valuation
N/A trailing · -1,260.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.51
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$258.03
N/A P/E · -1,260.59 fwd
Our fair value
$290.00
12% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$290.00
+12% to current
Target low $193.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $330.00
▲ current $258.03 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$258.03
you are here
Conservative
$193.00
-25%
Analyst avg
$290.00
+12%
Our fair value
$290.00
+12%
Analyst high
$330.00
+28%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
38.80%
Profit margin
-9.05%
Debt to equity
13.53
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 21 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Tracking hidden cancer with a simple blood test
When a patient finishes cancer treatment, the real worry is whether stray cells will return. Natera turns that fear into a blood test that spots tiny traces of disease long before scans can. Revenue is rising 39 percent a year, the test has a narrow moat, and the shares sit just 3 percent below our fair value.
Yet the business still loses money, shown by a negative 9 percent profit margin and minus 15 percent return on equity. Forward earnings sit at a deeply negative multiple, so any slip in growth or reimbursement would hurt fast. The ethical screen is clear, but the thin margin of safety leaves little room for error.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $260. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$212.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $260.
2026-07-03Markup$212.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$212.07Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming NTRA
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
30 Apr2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
500K–1M
2 Jun2026
John Curtis
Republican
sell
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$199.14
+9.0%
·
$1,090
+9.0%
2 months
$193.03
+12.5%
·
$1,125
+12.5%
3 months
$190.31
+14.1%
·
$1,141
+14.1%
6 months
$231.05
-6.0%
·
$940
-6.0%
1 year
$165.22
+31.4%
·
$1,314
+31.4%
2 years
$111.66
+94.5%
·
$1,945
+94.5%
3 years
$48.38
+348.8%
·
$4,488
+348.8%
5 years
$103.88
+109.0%
·
$2,090
+109.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NTRA does next, these words stay.
Natera Inc · NTRA · Markup · $258.03
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
