Screened 2026-07-19 · the tape above runs as of 22:40 UTC · 24 Jul · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Keurig Dr Pepper holds its Distribution at $30.91. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$30.91
Valuation
22.90 trailing · 12.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.6
Beta
0.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 36% discount to our $42.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 9.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-07-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-07-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Daily coffee still flows through this undervalued brewer
Think about the pod that starts most mornings or the can grabbed at lunch. Keurig Dr Pepper sits behind both, and the numbers show steady demand. Revenue is rising 9 percent while the forward multiple sits at just 12.2 times, giving our fair value of 42 dollars against the current 30.91 price and a 36 percent margin of safety. The ethical screen clears without issue and the narrow moat still protects a reliable cash flow engine.
That combination of growth, cash generation and discounted valuation is what makes the name stand out. Profit margins hold at 11 percent even as the business expands across coffee systems and soft drinks. Analysts see further upside with a median target of 36 dollars, yet our own work points higher once the market catches up to the defensive volume trends.
The low 6 percent ROE is the clear weak spot and leaves little room for error if input costs spike or shelf space shrinks. A narrow moat also means bigger rivals can keep chipping away at pricing power over time. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KDP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-07-18Distribution$30.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-03Distribution$30.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$30.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
