Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-21
Options put/call open interest 0.54, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price142.42 USD
Fair value131.00
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup128.38+10.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with deal news in the headlines
2026-10-11Read Distribution128.63+10.7% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown128.63+10.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-09Read Accumulation138.45+2.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PepsiCo holds its Markup at $142.42. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$142.42
Valuation
16.83 trailing · 15.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.46%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
PepsiCo's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PEP's ethical verdict changes
Today PEP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for operations in Israel through its subsidiary SodaStream (acquired 2018), which previously operated in the occupied West Bank. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $131.00 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 5.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.7% above the base estimate.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PEP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup$137.34+7.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$128.38+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-10-18Distribution$128.38-0.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$128.63-7.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-08-08Distribution$138.78-2.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-07-18Distribution$141.92+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $171.
2026-07-03Distribution$141.92+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$141.92Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
