Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
James Hardie Industries plc holds its Markdown at $28.19. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$28.19
Valuation
128.14 trailing · 17.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.99%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $24.46 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 63.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Building supplies that look cheap but trap value
Picture a boom in new houses and you can see why revenue jumped 44 percent at James Hardie. Yet the shares sit above our fair value and the business carries too much debt, so we pass.
Forward earnings sit on a 15.7 times multiple while profit margins and return on equity both run at just 2 percent. A weak moat and an ethical screen failure on leverage leave little room for error in a cyclical sector where peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples.
Analysts may still like the name, but history shows building-material cycles turn fast and low margins offer scant protection when volumes fall. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JHX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$26.47+16.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-18Distribution$22.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $28.
2026-07-03Distribution$22.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$22.66Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
