Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Hamilton Lane Incorporated holds its Distribution at $95.79. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$95.79
Valuation
14.58 trailing · 13.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
7.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $120.00 fair value, strong competitive moat, 56.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asset Manager Revenue Shrinks Despite Fat Margins
Hamilton Lane handles private equity commitments for pension funds and endowments that need steady access to illiquid deals. The business posts a 33% profit margin and 32% return on equity, yet revenue has already turned negative and is running 2% lower than last year. That combination alone keeps us away even though the ethical screen clears without issue.
The forward multiple sits at 11.7 times earnings and the shares trade well below our own fair value, but falling sales turn the low multiple into a warning rather than a bargain. Strong moat or not, asset managers live off new commitments and performance fees that dry up when markets slow. Analysts may still cluster around a buy rating, yet the top line trend tells a different story.
Currency moves, fee pressure and slower fundraising cycles all sit on the risk list and could easily extend the revenue slide. A wide moat does not protect against structural shrinkage in assets under management. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HLNE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup · changed$105.20+18.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $134.
2026-08-01Distribution$88.91+10.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$80.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
