An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $85.85
Hamilton Lane Incorporated holds its Distribution at $85.85.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price
$85.85
Valuation
14.50 trailing · 11.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.17
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $119.02 fair value, strong competitive moat.
Read at
$85.85
14.50 P/E · 11.70 fwd
Our fair value
$119.02
39% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$128.00
+49% to current
Target low $94.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $174.00
▲ current $85.85 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$85.85
you are here
Conservative
$84.60
-1%
Analyst avg
$128.00
+49%
Our fair value
$119.02
+39%
Analyst high
$174.00
+103%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-2.20%
Profit margin
32.83%
Debt to equity
24.31
Analyst consensus
Buy · 7 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 7.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Asset Manager Revenue Shrinks Despite Fat Margins
Hamilton Lane handles private equity commitments for pension funds and endowments that need steady access to illiquid deals. The business posts a 33% profit margin and 32% return on equity, yet revenue has already turned negative and is running 2% lower than last year. That combination alone keeps us away even though the ethical screen clears without issue.
The forward multiple sits at 11.7 times earnings and the shares trade well below our own fair value, but falling sales turn the low multiple into a warning rather than a bargain. Strong moat or not, asset managers live off new commitments and performance fees that dry up when markets slow. Analysts may still cluster around a buy rating, yet the top line trend tells a different story.
Currency moves, fee pressure and slower fundraising cycles all sit on the risk list and could easily extend the revenue slide. A wide moat does not protect against structural shrinkage in assets under management. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HLNE trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Distribution$80.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$80.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · HLNE
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-02-24
BERKMAN DAVID J
Director
10,000
$1,010,000
2026-02-20
DELGADO-MOREIRA JUAN
Chief Executive Officer
9,225
$989,311
2026-02-20
HIRSCH ERIK R
Chief Executive Officer
9,225
$988,260
2026-02-20
KRAMER ANDREA ANIGATI
Chief Operating Officer
2,325
$250,011
2026-02-06
DELGADO-MOREIRA JUAN
Chief Executive Officer
14,375
·
2025-12-31
KRAMER ANDREA ANIGATI
Chief Operating Officer
92
$10,522
2025-12-31
CARL DREW THOMAS
Officer
46
$5,251
2025-11-07
DELGADO-MOREIRA JUAN
Chief Executive Officer
8,000
$1,042,832
2025-09-16
VARON LESLIE F.
Director
666
·
2025-09-16
SEXTON O GRIFFITH
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
