Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price49.86 USD
Fair value56.50
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Markup47.55+4.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-21Read Distribution47.55+4.9% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-14Read Markdown45.63+9.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 16% slide in 15 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution54.43-8.4% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Fiserv holds its Markup at $49.86. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$49.86
Valuation
9.13 trailing · 5.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Fiserv does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when FISV's ethical verdict changes
Today FISV does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $56.50 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payment Plumbing Runs Into Ethical Barrier
Fiserv sits behind countless bank transfers and card transactions that keep everyday finance moving. We pass on the name despite the 5.7 times forward earnings multiple and 24 percent gap between the 50.63 dollar share price and our 63 dollar fair value mark. The ethical screen returns a clear fail on business activity grounds, which overrides any surface appeal.
Twenty seven analysts carry a consensus hold rating with a median target of 63 dollars that matches our own reading. That alignment changes nothing once the screen has spoken.
The exposure centres on whatever activity triggered the fail and the chance of added regulatory or reputational drag that could hit cash flows later. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FISV trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup$47.55+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$47.55+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-10-14Markdown · changed$45.63-0.8%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-10-02Distribution$46.02-12.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-08-29Distribution$52.58+0.5%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-28Distribution$52.31-3.9%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-18Distribution$54.43+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (27 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-03Distribution$54.43+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$54.43Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
