An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $37.35
Experian plc holds its Distribution at $37.35.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price
$37.35
Valuation
22.91 trailing · 16.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.83
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 19% discount to our $44.34 fair value, strong competitive moat, 12.30% revenue growth.
Read at
$37.35
22.91 P/E · 16.35 fwd
Our fair value
$44.34
19% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$43.00
+15% to current
Target low $42.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $57.00
▲ current $37.35 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$37.35
you are here
Conservative
$37.80
+1%
Analyst avg
$43.00
+15%
Our fair value
$44.34
+19%
Analyst high
$57.00
+53%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
12.30%
Profit margin
17.79%
Debt to equity
100.32
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 17.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Credit Data Leader Draws Analyst Love Yet We Pass
Every time a bank runs a mortgage check or a retailer verifies an identity, Experian sits behind the scenes handling the data flow. The business prints 12 percent revenue growth, 18 percent profit margins and 28 percent ROE with a strong moat intact.
Yet we pass. The name carries a strong buy rating from the two analysts who cover it and a 50 dollar median target, but the 16.1 times forward multiple already prices in most of that quality at the current 36.54 dollar share price.
Risk sits with tighter data privacy rules that could lift compliance costs and squeeze the 18 percent margin over time. Ethical screen passes yet the valuation leaves no real margin for error. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
EXPGY trades on OQX. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55. Entered 2026-07-28 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Distribution$37.35+7.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-18Distribution$34.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-03Distribution$34.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$34.82Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$36.24
-2.9%
·
$971
-2.9%
2 months
$34.51
+1.9%
·
$1,019
+1.9%
3 months
$37.36
-5.8%
·
$942
-5.8%
6 months
$43.84
-19.8%
·
$803
-19.8%
1 year
$50.13
-29.8%
$0.43
$710
-29.0%
2 years
$45.45
-22.6%
$1.03
$797
-20.3%
3 years
$34.74
+1.3%
$1.59
$1,058
+5.8%
5 years
$35.68
-1.4%
$2.60
$1,059
+5.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever EXPGY does next, these words stay.
Experian plc · EXPGY · Distribution · $37.35
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
