Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-11-01
Ethical passes the values gate
Price183.64 USD
Fair value145.86
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation173.72+5.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown173.58+5.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-28Read Distribution204.25-10.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markdown212.72-13.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Eagle Materials Inc. holds its Accumulation at $183.64. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$183.64
Valuation
13.37 trailing · 12.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.78%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Eagle Materials clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 29%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when EXP's ethical verdict changes
Today EXP passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $145.86 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 2.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cement Maker Trades Above Its Real Worth
Picture a housing boom that lifts every tonne of cement and wallboard, only to leave the supplier staring at empty order books when rates rise. Eagle Materials sits in exactly that spot, with revenue barely crawling at 2 percent and the shares priced 15 percent above our fair value line. Strong returns on equity and a genuine moat do not change the fact that investors are paying up for earnings that peak with the cycle.
The forward multiple of 14 times looks modest next to 18 percent margins and 29 percent returns, yet that is the classic warning in a cyclical business. Peak profits shrink the denominator and make any multiple appear cheap, which is why we treat low multiples here as a red flag rather than a bargain. Analyst targets sit higher, but our lens stays fixed on sustainable cash flows rather than the next upswing.
Currency swings and construction downturns remain live threats that could compress margins faster than the moat can protect them. The ethical screen is clean, yet the valuation gap and cyclical exposure still place the name on the avoid list. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EXP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$183.64+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$183.64+5.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$173.72+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$169.63+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$169.63+3.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-10-14Markdown$164.70-5.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$173.58-15.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224.
2026-07-28Markdown$205.93-3.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $224.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.