ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products · NYQ
$54.86
Close 2026-05-18
✓ ETHICAL PASS
WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$3.2B
Trailing P/E
30.99
Forward P/E
15.22
Rev Growth
+37.8%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
ROE
-0.3%
Analyst Target
$78.07
Recommendation
BUY
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (0.29%) | PASS |
| Cash Ratio (0.06%) | PASS |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Overall | PASS |
Score Valuation: 61.0
Score Quality: 33.8
Score Combined: 44.2
Fair Value Est: $54.08 · Margin of Safety: -1.4% · Tier: AVOID
Opportunity Scores
Valuation86.8
Quality25.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet74.0
Debt Purity13.4
Liquid Purity81.6
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance58.9
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 52.6 · Rank: #1299
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 0.74 | Pending | -- |
| 2026-05-20 | 0.29 | 0.32 | +12.2% |
| 2026-02-04 | 0.72 | 1.24 | +71.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | 0.57 | 0.68 | +19.9% |
| 2025-08-06 | 0.84 | 0.89 | +6.3% |
| 2025-05-28 | 0.72 | 0.78 | +8.3% |
| 2025-02-06 | 0.76 | 0.74 | -2.5% |
| 2024-11-06 | 0.43 | 0.77 | +80.9% |
Quarterly Financials
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | Gross Profit | Op. Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $449.3M | -$49.4M | -$17.6M | $326.5M | $7.3M | -0.84 |
| 2025-12-31 | $489.5M | $39.4M | $87.8M | $347.5M | $67.5M | 0.66 |
| 2025-09-30 | $343.9M | $3.0M | $23.4M | $238.9M | $7.7M | 0.05 |
| 2025-06-30 | $353.7M | $33.3M | $66.9M | $244.5M | $48.7M | 0.59 |
| 2025-03-31 | $332.6M | $28.3M | $62.9M | $237.0M | $44.3M | 0.50 |
| 2024-12-31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Insider Transactions
| Date | Name | Role | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | Officer | 23,796 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | FIELDS MANDY J | Chief Financial Officer | 23,656 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | FRANKS JOSHUA ALLEN | Officer | 23,535 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | HARTNETT JENNIFER CATHERINE | Officer | 20,829 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-24 | MARCHISOTTO KORY | Officer | 42,237 | -- |
| 2026-04-24 | FIELDS MANDY J | Chief Financial Officer | 42,237 | -- |
| 2026-04-24 | FRANKS JOSHUA ALLEN | Officer | 42,237 | -- |
| 2026-04-24 | HARTNETT JENNIFER CATHERINE | Officer | 36,956 | -- |
| 2026-04-01 | AMIN TARANG P | Chief Executive Officer | 71,000 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | AMIN TARANG P | Chief Executive Officer | 52,880 | $3.3M |
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO | 7.2M | $380.2M | 0.1% |
| Blackrock Inc. | 5.5M | $293.6M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 2.6M | $137.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 2.5M | $134.1M | 0.0% |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 2.2M | $118.3M | 0.0% |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 2.1M | $109.4M | 0.0% |
| Ensign Peak Advisors, Inc | 1.9M | $100.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street Corporation | 1.8M | $95.2M | 0.0% |
| ClearBridge Investments, LLC | 1.7M | $91.8M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 1.5M | $79.1M | 0.0% |
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
17 analysts
2 Months Ago
16 analysts
Last Month
16 analysts
Current
17 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$3.3B
$3.3B
Price/Book
11.88
11.88
Beta
2.389
2.389
Analysts
15
15
Total Revenue (TTM)
$268.4M
$268.4M
Total Debt
$916.9M
$916.9M
Rec. Mean
1.76
1.76
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 44.2 (P58 — top 42.1% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical PASS. 15 analysts at Buy.
Price: $54.86 | Target: $78.07 (+42%) | Fair Value: $54.08 (+-1%)
Score
44
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+42%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+37.8%
Profit Margin-0.2%
ROE-0.3%
Forward P/E15.2
Market Cap$3.2B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.74 | Pending | — |
| 2026-05-20 | $0.29 | $0.32 | +12.2% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.72 | $1.24 | +71.4% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.57 | $0.68 | +19.9% |
| 2025-08-06 | $0.84 | $0.89 | +6.3% |
| 2025-05-28 | $0.72 | $0.78 | +8.3% |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $46.63 (-15%) | Entry: $54.86
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($78.07, 15 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $548.60 | +$232.10 (42%) | 2.8R |
| 50 | $2,743.00 | +$1,160.50 (42%) | 2.8R |
| 100 | $5,486.00 | +$2,321.00 (42%) | 2.8R |
| To Fair Value ($54.08) | |||
| 10 | $548.60 | +$-7.80 (-1%) | -0.1R |
| 50 | $2,743.00 | +$-39.00 (-1%) | -0.1R |
| 100 | $5,486.00 | +$-78.00 (-1%) | -0.1R |
Risk Factors
- No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. passes all ethical screens, holds a weak competitive moat, and is growing revenue at +37.8%.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
D
Quant Score
37.5
Risk Grade
—
Layers
8
Quality: CONSISTENT_BEATER
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-6.8%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-11.6%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
-1.01
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-77.1%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
72
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
1.0x
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
87.5%
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| VAC | 0.465 |
| REZI | 0.454 |
| EL | 0.401 |
| NOVT | 0.395 |
| XLY | 0.390 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| CME | -0.151 |
| KR | -0.150 |
| PM | -0.145 |
| STC.KW | -0.144 |
| ED | -0.142 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Monday
Best Month
May
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
0.2903798522351779
Earnings Drift
After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.
Avg Drift After Beat
+2.9%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
—
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
-18.3%
3M Return
-42.9%
6M Return
-20.9%
12M Return
-34.6%
Momentum Rank
#4324
Momentum Signal
STRONG_DOWN