An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $73.69
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. holds its Markup at $73.69.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 116 days
Price
$73.69
Valuation
167.48 trailing · 20.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
2.39
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $73.44 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 35.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$73.69
167.48 P/E · 20.08 fwd
Our fair value
$73.44
0% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$73.50
-0% to current
Target low $50.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $97.00
▲ current $73.69 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$73.69
you are here
Conservative
$55.04
-25%
Analyst avg
$73.50
-0%
Our fair value
$73.44
-0%
Analyst high
$97.00
+32%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price — fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Revenue growth
35.10%
Profit margin
-0.23%
Debt to equity
81.10
Analyst consensus
Buy · 16 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 28.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Makeup sales boom but profits stay missing
Walk into any high-street chemist and you will see shelves of bright, cheap cosmetics flying off the racks. That surge has driven e.l.f. Beauty revenue 35 percent higher, yet the company still posts zero profit margin and zero return on equity. At a forward multiple of 20 times earnings and a share price sitting right on our fair value, there is simply no margin of safety left.
We pass because the numbers do not support ownership. Revenue growth alone cannot mask a weak competitive position and an absence of earnings power. When margins and returns sit at zero, the business has not yet proved it can turn popularity into durable cash.
The analyst crowd may still be bullish, but their $74 median target offers no cushion once growth slows. Currency moves, retail shifts and rising input costs sit ready to bite. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ELF trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 48.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. Entered 2026-07-27 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Markdown$73.69+48.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 48.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-18Markdown$49.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-03Markdown$49.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$49.57Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.