Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $109.67. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$109.67
Valuation
111.91 trailing · 28.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
2.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
28.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 28.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $88.26 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 35.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Makeup sales boom but profits stay missing
Walk into any high-street chemist and you will see shelves of bright, cheap cosmetics flying off the racks. That surge has driven e.l.f. Beauty revenue 35 percent higher, yet the company still posts zero profit margin and zero return on equity. At a forward multiple of 20 times earnings and a share price sitting right on our fair value, there is simply no margin of safety left.
We pass because the numbers do not support ownership. Revenue growth alone cannot mask a weak competitive position and an absence of earnings power. When margins and returns sit at zero, the business has not yet proved it can turn popularity into durable cash.
The analyst crowd may still be bullish, but their $74 median target offers no cushion once growth slows. Currency moves, retail shifts and rising input costs sit ready to bite. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ELF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 25.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-27Markdown$73.69+48.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 48.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-18Markdown$49.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-03Markdown$49.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$49.57Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.