Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Chewy, Inc. holds its Distribution at $20.44. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 227 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 227 days
Price at the screen
$20.44
Valuation
31.45 trailing · 10.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.41%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.56%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 72.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pet Owners Click Buy But We Pass
Every time a household tops up the dog bowl through an app the order still has to clear warehouses, shipping lanes and thin margins that leave little room for error. Chewy shows a forward multiple of just 11.4 times and an outsized 64 percent ROE, yet the business grows revenue at only 8 percent with a 2 percent profit margin and carries an unknown moat. The numbers do not clear our bar for a real edge.
Analysts like the name and set a 31 dollar median target against our own 35.72 dollar fair value, but the opportunity rating sits at none. We therefore stay away. The low multiple on a consumer cyclical name often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and we see no durable reason to override that signal.
Currency moves, shifting pet spending habits and rising fulfilment costs could quickly compress those thin margins further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHWY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Accumulation$24.69+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Accumulation$24.69+5.4%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Accumulation$23.43+11.9%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-18Distribution$19.31+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.