Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
44.11 USD
Screen close, 2026-10-01 · not a live quote Last reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-01 · the tape above runs as of 09:14 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 44.11 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 73.12, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price44.11 USD
Fair value73.12
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown44.11+0.0% to today
2026-08-24Read Markup45.03-2.0% to today
2026-07-24Read Accumulation45.82-3.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution41.25+6.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Maplebear Inc. holds its Markdown at $44.11. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$44.11
Valuation
23.97 trailing · 9.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
No prohibited business activity identified
Fail
Debt load
0.98%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
47.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 47.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.52%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Maplebear does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: No prohibited business activity identified, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 65.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Grocery app trading at a tempting price
Picture a shopper tapping an app for same-day groceries in any US city. The order flows through Maplebear's platform and the retailer handles the rest. On paper the business looks tidy, with 14 percent revenue growth, a 13 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of 9.7 times.
Yet we pass. The shares sit well below our fair value and the ethical screen is clean, but the low multiple on a consumer-cyclical name is a classic warning sign rather than a bargain. Peak earnings and a still-unknown moat leave little room for the next slowdown.
Analyst targets cluster around 50 dollars while the sector remains exposed to household spending swings and competition from bigger platforms. That combination keeps the opportunity rating at none.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CART trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$44.11-2.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$45.03-1.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-18Distribution$41.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-03Distribution$41.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$41.25Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
