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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Etsy, Inc.
ETSY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.3B · 2,375 employees
Etsy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
89.93 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 02:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price89.93 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.92, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price89.93 USD
Fair value115.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup89.86+0.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-26Read Accumulation87.41+2.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 8 days
2026-10-18Read Markup79.28+13.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation72.84+23.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Etsy, Inc. holds its Markup at $89.93. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$89.93
Valuation
25.60 trailing · 13.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
108.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 108.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
56.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 56.9% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.54%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Etsy,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 109% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when ETSY's ethical verdict changes
Today ETSY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $115.00 fair value, 10.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $115.00, with a range of $113.81 to $179.86, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 11%-growth business trading at just 14.0x forward earnings. That is a 22% discount to our $115.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 27 analysts rate it Buy with a $100.00 average target, about 11% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ETSY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$89.86+2.8%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Accumulation$87.41+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$87.41+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$87.41+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$87.41+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$87.41+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$87.41+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup$87.41+10.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$79.28+8.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $72. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
