Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.64, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price54.25 USD
Fair value50.71
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation53.14+2.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution53.14+2.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 15% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Markup62.23-12.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 14% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution72.60-25.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CAVA Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $54.25. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$54.25
Valuation
105.27 trailing · 77.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.39%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.28%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
CAVA Group, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 5%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CAVA's ethical verdict changes
Today CAVA passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $50.71 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 31.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +57% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying a premium for trendy bowls
Every time a lunch crowd lines up for a quick Mediterranean bowl the operator behind it is expanding at a clip. CAVA is delivering 32% revenue growth yet the business still posts only 5% profit margins and an 8% return on equity with a weak moat. At 91 times forward earnings the market is already treating it as a finished winner.
We pass because the price sits well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and the consumer cyclical label adds extra exposure to shifts in spending habits. Analyst targets sit higher still but that consensus does not change the valuation gap or the thin returns on capital.
The main risks are sustained high multiple compression if growth slows and any margin pressure from rising ingredient or labour costs in a sector with limited pricing power. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAVA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$57.90+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$57.90+4.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-10-18Accumulation$55.40+4.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$62.23-9.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-24Distribution$68.85-5.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-18Distribution$72.60+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $94.
2026-07-03Distribution$72.60+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$72.60Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
