Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.79 USD
Fair value7.10
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup8.79+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-03Read Accumulation8.70+1.0% to today ✓
2026-08-03Read Markup8.30+5.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution7.57+16.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kingfisher plc holds its Markup at $8.79. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$8.79
Valuation
18.70 trailing · 11.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
7.04%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Kingfisher's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 35% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.2% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt load and slim returns sideline this DIY chain
Picture the weekend rush at a big-box home store. Shelves look busy, yet the underlying economics show razor-thin 2% margins and just 4% return on equity. Kingfisher trades at 15.7 times forward earnings while revenue inches along at 2%, leaving little room for error in a cyclical trade that already prices the shares above our $6.50 fair value.
We pass because the business carries too much debt, fails our ethical screen outright, and shows no meaningful competitive moat. One analyst covers the name and rates it underperform with a $6 target. Low growth plus weak profitability simply does not justify stretching for the shares at an $8.17 price.
The real danger sits in the cycle itself. Peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples, and any slowdown in housing or consumer spending would expose the thin buffer fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KGFHY trades on OQX. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$8.79+1.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-09-03Accumulation · changed$8.70+4.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$8.30+9.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Distribution$7.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Distribution$7.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$7.57Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.