Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.14, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price98.54 USD
Fair value155.00
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution97.01+1.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 10 days
2026-10-26Read Markdown106.14-7.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-18Read Distribution106.14-7.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markdown109.06-9.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Bunge Global holds its Distribution at $98.54. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 229 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 229 days
Price at the screen
$98.54
Valuation
19.25 trailing · 8.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
35.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.66%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Bunge Global's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 36% discount to our $155.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 7.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $155.00, with a range of $155.00 to $197.08, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bunge trades cheap but the trap is real
Picture a grain trader watching prices swing with the weather. One strong year fills the silos but the next brings thin spreads and rising costs. Bunge shows exactly that pattern, with revenue up 88 percent yet a profit margin of just 1 percent and return on equity at 5 percent. The forward multiple of 10.7 times looks attractive on the surface, yet the weak moat and failing ethical screen on debt ratio tell us to stay away.
The low multiple reflects peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Agribusiness margins compress quickly when harvests normalise or input costs rise, and the thin returns on equity confirm limited pricing power. Debt levels already breach our screen, adding another layer of fragility when commodity volatility hits funding costs.
Nine analysts may favour the shares with a median target near 142 dollars, but our verdict stays clear. The combination of cyclical exposure, weak profitability and the debt breach outweighs any apparent margin of safety.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
2026-10-29Markdown$100.80-5.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$106.14+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$106.14+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$106.14+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$106.14+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$106.14+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$106.14+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$106.14+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $142.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
