Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.96, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.81 USD
Fair value16.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Markdown10.05-2.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution11.14-11.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 11 days
2026-09-21Read Markup11.83-17.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Distribution11.65-15.8% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Adecoagro S.A. holds its Markup at $9.81. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 98 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 98 days
Price at the screen
$9.81
Valuation
25.95 trailing · 7.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.89%
Below 5%
Only 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Adecoagro's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 37% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AGRO's ethical verdict changes
Today AGRO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 58.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
South American crops mask thin returns and traps
Picture a farmer in the pampas watching rain turn to drought overnight. Adecoagro runs sugar, ethanol and grain operations across Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, yet it turns just one percent of revenue into profit and delivers a one percent return on equity. Revenue may be rising fast, but the numbers show a business that struggles to keep earnings once costs and weather bite.
We pass because the low forward multiple looks tempting only until you remember this is a classic cyclical setup. Peak commodity prices can flatten quickly, leaving the same assets earning next to nothing. The ethical screen clears, yet the underlying economics do not support ownership at any price.
Currency swings, policy shifts in the region and volatile input costs sit at the heart of the risk. Even with a wide gap to an internal valuation, the combination of wafer-thin margins and cyclical exposure makes this one to leave alone. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGRO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markdown$10.12+0.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-19Markdown · changed$10.05-1.9%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-12Distribution$10.24-8.1%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-09-21Markup · changed$11.83+32.8%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 32.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-21Distribution$8.91-11.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-20Distribution$10.07-13.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-16Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
