An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $10.07
Adecoagro S.A. holds its Markup at $10.07.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days
Price
$10.07
Valuation
503.50 trailing · 8.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.07
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$10.07
503.50 P/E · 8.05 fwd
Our fair value
$16.00
59% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$14.10
+40% to current
Target low $10.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $16.00
▲ current $10.07 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$10.07
you are here
Conservative
$16.00
+59%
Analyst avg
$14.10
+40%
Our fair value
$16.00
+59%
Analyst high
$16.00
+59%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
22.50%
Profit margin
0.91%
Debt to equity
116.27
Analyst consensus
Hold · 7 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 151.8%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
South American crops mask thin returns and traps
Picture a farmer in the pampas watching rain turn to drought overnight. Adecoagro runs sugar, ethanol and grain operations across Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, yet it turns just one percent of revenue into profit and delivers a one percent return on equity. Revenue may be rising fast, but the numbers show a business that struggles to keep earnings once costs and weather bite.
We pass because the low forward multiple looks tempting only until you remember this is a classic cyclical setup. Peak commodity prices can flatten quickly, leaving the same assets earning next to nothing. The ethical screen clears, yet the underlying economics do not support ownership at any price.
Currency swings, policy shifts in the region and volatile input costs sit at the heart of the risk. Even with a wide gap to an internal valuation, the combination of wafer-thin margins and cyclical exposure makes this one to leave alone. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in AGRO's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AGRO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14. Entered 2026-07-20 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Distribution$10.07-13.6%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-16Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.65Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$13.49
-15.5%
·
$845
-15.5%
2 months
$14.25
-20.0%
$0.12
$808
-19.2%
3 months
$10.51
+8.5%
$0.12
$1,096
+9.6%
6 months
$7.32
+55.8%
$0.12
$1,575
+57.5%
1 year
$9.21
+23.8%
$0.12
$1,251
+25.1%
2 years
$8.82
+29.3%
$0.47
$1,346
+34.6%
3 years
$8.87
+28.5%
$0.80
$1,376
+37.6%
5 years
$10.35
+10.1%
$1.28
$1,225
+22.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AGRO does next, these words stay.
Adecoagro S.A. · AGRO · Markup · $10.07
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
