ADM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $41.7B · 40,798 employees
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Archer Daniels Midland holds its Accumulation at $86.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$86.55
Valuation
23.65 trailing · 15.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.4
Beta
0.61
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.63%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.61%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.80%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $95.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 7.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Grain Giant With Slim Returns and Growth
Every loaf of bread or bottle of cooking oil that lands on a shelf moves through ADM's global web of silos, ships and processing plants. The scale looks impressive yet the results do not. Revenue grows at just 2 percent, profit margins sit at 1 percent, return on equity reaches only 5 percent and the moat is weak. Analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target of 76 dollars, below the current price, so we pass.
The forward multiple of 15.9 times offers no real cushion once you weigh the thin profitability and limited ability to compound capital over time. A modest 7 percent gap to our own fair value does not alter the core picture.
Commodity price swings and cost pressures remain the main risks and could easily compress the already narrow margins further. The ethical screen is clear but the operating record is not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-20Markup$85.90+6.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-16Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-03Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$80.92Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
