An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $83.19
Archer Daniels Midland holds its Markup at $83.19.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days
Price
$83.19
Valuation
37.14 trailing · 15.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.4
Beta
0.61
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $92.56 fair value, weak competitive moat, 1.60% revenue growth.
Read at
$83.19
37.14 P/E · 15.25 fwd
Our fair value
$92.56
11% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$76.00
-9% to current
Target low $60.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $95.00
▲ current $83.19 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$83.19
you are here
Conservative
$81.84
-2%
Analyst avg
$76.00
-9%
Our fair value
$92.56
+11%
Analyst high
$95.00
+14%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Revenue growth
1.60%
Profit margin
1.34%
Debt to equity
46.13
Analyst consensus
Hold · 10 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 18.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 8.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Grain Giant With Slim Returns and Growth
Every loaf of bread or bottle of cooking oil that lands on a shelf moves through ADM's global web of silos, ships and processing plants. The scale looks impressive yet the results do not. Revenue grows at just 2 percent, profit margins sit at 1 percent, return on equity reaches only 5 percent and the moat is weak. Analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target of 76 dollars, below the current price, so we pass.
The forward multiple of 15.9 times offers no real cushion once you weigh the thin profitability and limited ability to compound capital over time. A modest 7 percent gap to our own fair value does not alter the core picture.
Commodity price swings and cost pressures remain the main risks and could easily compress the already narrow margins further. The ethical screen is clear but the operating record is not. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ADM trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74. Entered 2026-07-20 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-20Markup$85.90+6.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-16Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-03Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$80.92Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
