ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
Consumer Staples · Agricultural Products & Services · US
$79.57
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$38.3B
Trailing P/E
35.52
Forward P/E
15.33
Rev Growth
+1.6%
Profit Margin
1.3%
ROE
4.8%
Analyst Target
$74.10
Recommendation
HOLD
About Archer Daniels Midland

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $80, 28% above fair value of $62. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 52% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.19%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.11%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.09%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 86.4
Score Valuation: 55.0
Score Quality: 38.2
Score Combined: 51.1
Fair Value Est: $62.29 · Margin of Safety: -27.7% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation81.4
Quality14.8
Cash Flow52.5
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet88.6
Debt Purity43.6
Liquid Purity67.8
Rev Purity97.1
Compliance66.4
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 51.3 · Rank: #1575
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-041.41Pending--
2026-05-050.660.71+7.8%
2026-02-030.800.87+9.2%
2025-11-040.850.92+7.9%
2025-08-050.780.45-42.6%
2025-05-060.670.70+4.5%
2025-02-041.171.17-0.1%
2024-11-181.091.09-0.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$20.5B$298.0M$826.0M$1.2B$261.0M0.62
2025-12-31$18.6B$456.0M$925.0M$1.2B$320.0M0.95
2025-09-30$20.4B$108.0M$596.0M$1.3B$397.0M0.22
2025-06-30$21.2B$219.0M$799.0M$1.4B$459.0M0.45
2025-03-31$20.2B$295.0M$798.0M$1.2B$248.0M0.61
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-03-13CUDDY CHRISTOPHER MOfficer35,000$2.6M
2026-03-13PINNER IAN ROfficer34,106$2.4M
2026-03-10MORRIS GREGORY AOfficer50,000$3.4M
2026-02-17WEBER JENNIFER LOfficer25,000$1.7M
2026-02-12MORRIS GREGORY AOfficer18,993--
2026-02-12LUCIANO JUAN RChief Executive Officer106,475--
2026-02-12WEBER JENNIFER LOfficer13,094--
2026-02-12CUDDY CHRISTOPHER MOfficer23,022--
2026-02-12NICHOL CARRIE ANNOfficer7,569--
2026-02-12JONES REGINA BYNOTEOfficer16,116--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co46.8M$3.6B0.1%
Blackrock Inc.42.9M$3.3B0.1%
State Street Corporation33.7M$2.6B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC31.2M$2.4B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC26.0M$2.0B0.1%
Wellington Management Group, LLP17.3M$1.3B0.0%
Dodge & Cox Inc.15.8M$1.2B0.0%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.15.3M$1.2B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC13.0M$1.0B0.0%
Northern Trust Corporation12.1M$937.4M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
1
7
2
11 analysts
2 Months Ago
1
7
3
12 analysts
Last Month
1
7
3
12 analysts
Current
1
7
2
11 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$47.7B
Price/Book
1.64
Beta
0.578
Analysts
10
Total Revenue (TTM)
$80.6B
Total Debt
$10.7B
Earnings Growth
+0.9%
Dividend Yield
2.5%
Rec. Mean
3.18
Short Ratio
3.91
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
40,798

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 51.1 (P76 — top 24.5% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical PASS. 10 analysts at Hold.
Price: $79.57 | Target: $74.10 (+-7%) | Fair Value: $62.29 (+-22%)
Score
51
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+-7%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+1.6%
Profit Margin1.3%
ROE4.8%
Forward P/E15.3
Market Cap$38.3B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-04$1.41Pending
2026-05-05$0.66$0.71+7.8%
2026-02-03$0.80$0.87+9.2%
2025-11-04$0.85$0.92+7.9%
2025-08-05$0.78$0.45-42.6%
2025-05-06$0.67$0.70+4.5%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $67.63 (-15%) | Entry: $79.57
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($74.10, 10 analysts)
10$795.70+$-54.70 (-7%)-0.5R
50$3,978.50+$-273.50 (-7%)-0.5R
100$7,957.00+$-547.00 (-7%)-0.5R
To Fair Value ($62.29)
10$795.70+$-172.80 (-22%)-1.4R
50$3,978.50+$-864.00 (-22%)-1.4R
100$7,957.00+$-1,728.00 (-22%)-1.4R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (3.91 days to cover)
The Verdict
Archer Daniels Midland passes all ethical screens and holds a weak competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
69.5
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.6%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.86
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-34.5%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
85
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
50.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
BG0.696
MOO0.604
DAR0.460
ANDE0.459
DOW0.423
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
SUKOON.AE-0.148
LPTVQ-0.140
NTSK-0.136
QNCD.QA-0.131
4193.SR-0.128
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Thursday
Worst Day
Wednesday
Best Month
Jan
Worst Month
Dec
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.022987991784725298
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
-0.1%
Beat Drift Positive %
66.7%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+13.4%
3M Return
+15.4%
6M Return
+36.7%
12M Return
+67.8%
Momentum Rank
#689
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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