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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Farm Products
Archer Daniels Midland
ADM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $40.0B · 40,798 employees
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.13, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price77.23 USD
Fair value95.00
Ethical score86.4/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markdown82.93-6.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Distribution80.38-3.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 13 days
2026-09-19Read Markup86.55-10.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-20Read Distribution77.58-0.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Archer Daniels Midland holds its Markdown at $77.23. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 370 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 370 days
Price at the screen
$77.23
Valuation
22.60 trailing · 14.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.4
Beta
0.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.63%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.61%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.80%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Archer Daniels Midland clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ADM's ethical verdict changes
Today ADM passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $95.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 7.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Grain Giant With Slim Returns and Growth
Every loaf of bread or bottle of cooking oil that lands on a shelf moves through ADM's global web of silos, ships and processing plants. The scale looks impressive yet the results do not. Revenue grows at just 2 percent, profit margins sit at 1 percent, return on equity reaches only 5 percent and the moat is weak. Analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target of 76 dollars, below the current price, so we pass.
The forward multiple of 15.9 times offers no real cushion once you weigh the thin profitability and limited ability to compound capital over time. A modest 7 percent gap to our own fair value does not alter the core picture.
Commodity price swings and cost pressures remain the main risks and could easily compress the already narrow margins further. The ethical screen is clear but the operating record is not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$82.93+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$82.93+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown · changed$82.93+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-19Distribution$82.93+3.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-12Distribution$79.89-0.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-09-19Markup · changed$86.55+11.6%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-20Markup$85.90+6.2%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Markup$80.92+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $74.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
