Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Tyson Foods holds its Distribution at $51.74. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 20 days
Price at the screen
$51.74
Valuation
31.94 trailing · 12.13 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.0
Beta
0.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.09%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.13%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 48% discount to our $76.40 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 47.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Meat Processor With Room to Recover
Every supermarket shelf and restaurant menu depends on steady supplies of beef, pork and chicken. Tyson sits at the centre of that chain and trades at $57.77 against our fair value of $79.06, a 37 percent margin of safety. Forward earnings sit at just 12.9 times while revenue edges up 4 percent, numbers that suggest the market is overlooking a basic food business that clears the ethical screen.
The balance sheet shows modest returns, with a 1 percent profit margin and 3 percent ROE, yet the shares still look inexpensive next to the analyst median target of $68. Weak competitive protection means Tyson must keep fighting on cost and volume, but the defensive nature of the products gives it a floor that pure commodity plays lack.
Commodity swings and thin margins remain real threats, so any recovery depends on steady demand and cost control rather than sudden windfalls. The low multiple reflects those pressures, not hidden strength. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TSN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markup$58.73+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markup$58.73+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$58.73Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
