BANC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.0B · 1,904 employees
Banc of California, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
18.92 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Banc of California, Inc. holds its Markdown at $18.92. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$18.92
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Banks Look Cheap Yet Ethics Keep Us Out
Picture a local branch handling pay cheques and small business loans in California. Every transaction adds to steady revenue growth of 8 percent and a 23 percent profit margin. The shares trade at 10.3 times forward earnings with an 18 percent gap to our fair value of 25 dollars, yet the ethical screen blocks any interest because the company is a bank.
The low 7 percent return on equity already signals limited competitive strength and thin margins once rates turn. Analyst targets sit only at 23 dollars, offering little extra cushion. A cyclical business dressed up as a bargain often hides peak earnings that later compress the multiple.
Currency swings and regulatory shifts add further volatility on top of the ethical red line. We pass without hesitation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BANC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-22Accumulation$21.21+5.2%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Accumulation$20.17+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Accumulation$20.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$20.17Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
