AVB · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $26.3B · 3,011 employees
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
184.06 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
AvalonBay Communities holds its Distribution at $184.06. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$184.06
Valuation
25.25 trailing · 36.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.78%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.87%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.84%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.90%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $124.56 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rich Price and Heavy Debt Weigh on Rents
Picture families paying monthly rents in Boston or Seattle. The cash flows feel reliable until you check the price tag. AvalonBay trades at 39.5 times forward earnings while revenue edges up just 2 percent a year. That leaves almost no margin when interest rates stay higher for longer.
We pass because the valuation sits well above our fair value and the ethical screen flags excessive debt. Profit margins look healthy at 37 percent yet return on equity stays modest at 10 percent with only a narrow moat. Eighteen analysts call it a hold with a median target barely above the current share price.
The debt ratio is the clearest red flag and exposes the business to rising borrowing costs. Narrow growth and high multiples together create a classic value trap in a sector sensitive to rates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markdown · changed$184.06-4.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-07-22Markup$192.53+1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-07-18Markup$189.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $192.
2026-07-03Markup$189.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$189.72Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
