AVB
AvalonBay Communities
Real Estate · Multi-Family Residential REITs · US
$184.08
Close 2025-12-31
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

NARROW MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$25.6B
Trailing P/E
22.80
Forward P/E
37.50
Rev Growth
+3.4%
Profit Margin
37.3%
ROE
9.7%
Analyst Target
$194.25
Recommendation
HOLD
About AvalonBay Communities

AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 24 communities were under development. AvalonBay Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Arlington, United States.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $184, 88% above fair value of $98. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 9% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.43%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.01%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.01%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.01%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 30.5
Score Quality: 33.0
Score Combined: 28.4
Fair Value Est: $98.00 · Margin of Safety: -46.8% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation47.6
Quality26.3
Cash Flow50.0
Moat70.0
Balance Sheet73.9
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity97.4
Rev Purity81.9
Compliance52.7
Tier: WATCH · Score: 34.2 · Rank: #4825
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-291.09Pending--
2026-04-271.171.04-10.6%
2026-02-041.241.16-6.3%
2025-10-291.372.68+96.2%
2025-07-301.301.18-9.2%
2025-04-291.361.26-6.9%
2025-02-041.272.15+69.6%
2024-11-041.472.47+68.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$770.3M$325.7M$632.6M$481.8M$226.6M2.33
2025-12-31$767.9M$164.7M$468.2M$486.0M$230.7M1.17
2025-09-30$766.8M$381.3M$679.8M$473.6M$221.2M2.68
2025-06-30$760.2M$268.7M$565.9M$483.2M$228.5M1.89
2025-03-31$745.9M$236.6M$514.2M$477.0M$239.4M1.66
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-03-02HAVNER RONALD L JRDirector140--
2026-03-02BROWN TERRY SDirector209--
2026-03-02MUELLER CHARLES E. JR.Director182--
2026-03-02FLYNN CONOR CDirector140--
2026-03-02HOWARD CHRISTOPHERDirector140--
2026-02-26BRESLIN SEAN JOSEPHChief Operating Officer19,133--
2026-02-26SCHULMAN EDWARD MGeneral Counsel8,991--
2026-02-26WALSH ALAINE SUSANOfficer1,830--
2026-02-26THOMAS PAMELA ROGERSOfficer9,090--
2026-02-26WILLSON SEAN THOMASOfficer963--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.17.5M$3.3B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC12.2M$2.3B0.1%
State Street Corporation9.3M$1.7B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC9.2M$1.7B0.1%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO4.5M$829.1M0.0%
Principal Financial Group, Inc.4.4M$824.6M0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC4.3M$795.1M0.0%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc3.9M$730.5M0.0%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.3.4M$636.9M0.0%
Northern Trust Corporation2.7M$494.5M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
3
4
16
23 analysts
2 Months Ago
3
4
16
23 analysts
Last Month
4
4
15
23 analysts
Current
2
3
15
20 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$35.4B
Price/Book
2.24
Beta
0.798
Analysts
20
Total Revenue (TTM)
$3.1B
Total Debt
$9.5B
Earnings Growth
+40.3%
Dividend Yield
387.0%
Rec. Mean
2.60
Short Ratio
4.34
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
3,011

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 28.4 (P11 — top 89.3% of scored tickers). Narrow Moat. Ethical FAIL. 16 analysts at Hold.
Price: $184.08 | Target: $192.06 (+4%) | Fair Value: $98.00 (+-47%)
Score
28
Moat
NARROW
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+4%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+3.4%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE9.7%
Forward P/E37.5
Market Cap$25.6B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-29$1.09Pending
2026-04-27$1.17$1.04-10.6%
2026-02-04$1.24$1.16-6.3%
2025-10-29$1.37$2.68+96.2%
2025-07-30$1.30$1.18-9.2%
2025-04-29$1.36$1.26-6.9%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $156.47 (-15%) | Entry: $184.08
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($192.06, 16 analysts)
10$1,840.80+$79.80 (4%)0.3R
50$9,204.00+$399.00 (4%)0.3R
100$18,408.00+$798.00 (4%)0.3R
To Fair Value ($98.00)
10$1,840.80+$-860.80 (-47%)-3.1R
50$9,204.00+$-4,304.00 (-47%)-3.1R
100$18,408.00+$-8,608.00 (-47%)-3.1R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (4.34 days to cover)
  • Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
AvalonBay Communities holds a narrow competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
55.3
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.3%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.2%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.11
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-29.4%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.7x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
50.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
EQR0.911
ESS0.877
UDR0.871
MAA0.859
CPT0.856
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
4326.SR-0.270
9590.SR-0.200
ALEC.AE-0.165
QIC.KW-0.163
SUKOON.AE-0.161
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Tuesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Aug
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.012077880475232394
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+4.6%
Beat Drift Positive %
100.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+7.4%
3M Return
+5.4%
6M Return
+6.7%
12M Return
-3.8%
Momentum Rank
#1961
Momentum Signal
UP

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