Alliance Resource Partners, L.P., a diversified natural resource company, engages in the production and marketing of coal to utilities and industrial users in the United States.
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 16:37 UTC · 29 Aug · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. holds its Accumulation at $26.19. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$26.19
Valuation
12.78 trailing · 9.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.89%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.13%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coal miner looks cheap but cycles turn fast
Every time a utility in the Midwest flips the switch, thermal coal still moves the dial for now. Alliance Resource Partners shows an 8.5 times forward multiple, 11 percent profit margins and 14 percent return on equity, with a modest 13 percent gap to our fair value. Yet the business is posting 4 percent revenue declines and carries an unknown moat in an industry that has already seen multiple boom and bust rounds.
We pass because this is classic cyclical value trap territory. A low multiple often marks the moment peak earnings start to fade rather than the start of a durable bargain. Analyst targets sit higher, but three voices and a strong buy label do not change the structural decline facing thermal coal demand.
Ethical screens clear the name, yet revenue pressure and the energy transition remain the real risks. Peak-cycle multiples can compress further when volumes keep slipping. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARLP trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-21Markdown$24.42-2.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-18Markdown$25.03+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-17Markdown$25.03+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-03Markdown$25.03+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$25.03Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
