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The Screen · Energy · Thermal Coal
Core Natural Resources, Inc.
CNR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.6B · 4,850 employees
Core Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, sells, and exports metallurgical and thermal coals in the United States and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price90.75 USD
Fair value81.83
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markup89.60+1.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation92.17-1.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. holds its Markdown at $90.75. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 184 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 184 days
Price at the screen
$90.75
Valuation
45.60 trailing · 13.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.75%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.62%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coal looks cheap until the cycle turns
Every winter the lights stay on because someone dug up thermal coal, yet the same mines that look cheap today often lose money when power demand softens or gas prices drop. Core Natural Resources trades at 12.5 times forward earnings with revenue up 7 percent, but it still posts a negative profit margin and a negative return on equity. The 6 percent premium to our fair value and the lack of any opportunity rating tell us this is not the bargain the headline multiple suggests.
We pass because the business sits in a classic cyclical trap. A low price-to-earnings ratio at what may be peak earnings simply signals that future profits could fall faster than the multiple expands. Four analysts see upside to 102 dollars, yet those forecasts rest on continued strong coal prices that history shows rarely last.
Currency swings, regulatory pressure on coal, and the thin margin of safety around current earnings add real downside. The ethical screen is clean, but the numbers still point to capital at risk rather than capital at work. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CNR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$89.60+7.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-07-25Accumulation$83.02-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-07-18Accumulation$92.17+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $110.
2026-07-03Accumulation$92.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$92.17Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
