Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price25.07 USD
Fair value26.76
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-24Read Markup23.81+5.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown27.40-8.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Peabody Energy Corporation holds its Distribution at $25.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$25.07
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.43%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Coal looks cheap until the cycle turns
Every time power demand spikes or a cold snap hits, coal producers book fat quarters and the low multiple starts to look tempting. Peabody trades at a forward P/E of 6.0x with a 28 percent gap to stated fair value, yet revenue is barely growing at 4 percent while profit margins and return on equity both sit at minus 3 percent. In a cyclical industry that is the classic warning sign, not a bargain. The ethical screen clears, but that alone does not turn a peak-earnings multiple into durable value.
We pass because the numbers already embed the trap. Low multiples in thermal coal often mark the point where earnings are about to roll over, not the start of a rerating. With no moat flagged and margins still negative, the present price reflects exactly the kind of temporary strength investors have been burned by before.
Volatility in seaborne prices, regulatory pressure on coal and sudden shifts in Asian demand remain the real drivers here. A single down cycle can erase years of supposed margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BTU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$23.81+6.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-23Markdown$22.44-18.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Markdown$27.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Markdown$27.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$27.40Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.