AGM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.5B · 212 employees
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
227.78 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation holds its Markdown at $227.78. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$227.78
Valuation
12.45 trailing · 9.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Farm Loan Marketplace Hits the Ethics Wall
Picture a Midwest farmer refinancing land through a secondary market that quietly turns those loans into tradable assets. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation sits right in that flow, posting 14% revenue growth, a 56% profit margin and a forward P/E of just 9.6 times. Yet the numbers never reach our desk because the business sits inside financial services, a sector our ethical screen rules out outright.
We therefore pass, regardless of the modest 11% gap between the current price and our fair value estimate. The 13% return on equity and unknown competitive moat look respectable on paper, but they cannot override the sector prohibition. Three analysts see little upside to a $226 median target anyway, leaving no investment case once ethics close the door.
Currency swings and farm credit cycles add further uncertainty that the low multiple already hints at. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup$226.93+10.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-20Markup$205.50+12.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-18Markup$182.11+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-16Markup$182.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-07-03Markup$182.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$182.11Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
