Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
97.58 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-24 · not a live quote Last reviewed 12 days ago
Screened 2026-09-24 · the tape above runs as of 13:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 97.58 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 120.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price97.58 USD
Fair value120.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown97.58+0.0% to today
2026-08-27Read Markup101.26-3.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown81.34+20.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Encore Capital Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $97.58. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$97.58
Valuation
7.41 trailing · 7.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: financial services
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Encore Capital Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt collectors fail the ethical screen outright
Picture a company buying up defaulted credit card bills and chasing payments from households already under pressure. Encore Capital does exactly that across several markets, yet the ethical screen blocks it at the first hurdle because the entire sector sits on the prohibited list. No valuation or growth figure changes that verdict.
On paper the numbers look solid, with revenue up 21 percent, a 16 percent profit margin, 32 percent return on equity and a forward multiple of just 6.8 times. Three analysts still carry buy ratings and a median target above the current price. None of that matters once the ethical filter has already ruled the name out.
The real risk is that any exposure to consumer debt recovery brings regulatory, reputational and political pressure that can shift quickly and without warning. This is exactly what the screen is designed to avoid. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ECPG trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$97.58-3.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-08-27Markup · changed$101.26+10.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-27Markdown$91.33+12.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-18Markdown$81.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-03Markdown$81.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$81.34Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
