2026-10-25
ExxonMobil clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
ExxonMobil
XOM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $753.7B · 57,900 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Not yet scored169.27 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price169.27 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.23)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $127.80 to $162.73, base estimate $141.51 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-14
- Options put/call open interest 1.23, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price169.27 USD
Fair value141.51
Ethical score93.7/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation160.59+5.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-31Read Markdown166.15+1.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-30Read Accumulation156.94+7.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 6 days
2026-07-24Read Distribution147.36+14.9% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
ExxonMobil holds its Markup at $169.27. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 367 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 367 days |
| Price at the screen | $169.27 |
| Valuation | 23.59 trailing · 15.26 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 93.7 |
| Beta | 0.21 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 9.70% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 9.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.06% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 10.34% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
ExxonMobil clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
ExxonMobil clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
The Conscience Overlay What do these labels mean?
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for energy operations and corporate relationships connected to Israeli energy infrastructure and resource extraction. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $141.51 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 44.10% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $141.51, with a range of $127.80 to $162.73, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsWhy it gives us pause
At 15.3x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 20% above our $141.51 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The narrow moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
| Forward P/E | 15.3xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 23.6xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 7.77 |
| EPS, forward | 12.01 |
| Revenue growth | +44.1%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 9.1%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 12.6%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 2.74% |
| Dividend yield | 2.70% |
| Debt to equity | 0.16minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.14adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.21barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.01% |
| 52-week range | 112.51 - 184.88 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $753.7B |
| Employees | 57,900 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeXOM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30
Accumulation $183.29
+0.0% Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $183.21
+4.9% Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $174.68
+8.8% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-10-11
Accumulation $160.59
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 1,080 | $167,935 | |
| 2026-03-02 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 2,150 | $339,313 | |
| 2026-02-09 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 3,230 | $481,835 | |
| 2026-02-02 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 5,000 | $698,753 | |
| 2026-01-02 | KELLNER LAWRENCE W. | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | HOOLEY JOSEPH L. | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | KARSNER ALEXANDER A | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | BRALY ANGELA F | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | KANDARIAN STEVEN A | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | UBBEN JEFFREY W | Director | 2,500 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Pete Sessions | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-07-02 | Michael Guest | Republican | exchange | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $148.67 | +1.3% | $1.03 | $1,020 | +2.0% |
| 2 months | $151.48 | -0.6% | $1.03 | $1,001 | +0.1% |
| 3 months | $152.49 | -1.2% | $1.03 | $994 | -0.6% |
| 6 months | $117.95 | +27.7% | $2.06 | $1,294 | +29.4% |
| 1 year | $103.91 | +45.0% | $4.08 | $1,489 | +48.9% |
| 2 years | $105.89 | +42.2% | $8.00 | $1,498 | +49.8% |
| 3 years | $97.15 | +55.1% | $11.76 | $1,672 | +67.2% |
| 5 years | $51.73 | +191.2% | $18.88 | $3,277 | +227.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever XOM does next, these words stay.
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