Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.21, read 2026-10-24
Ethical passes the values gate
Price119.36 USD
Fair value213.12
Ethical score92.3/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markdown119.36+0.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-10-02Read Distribution121.89-2.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 26% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Markup164.04-27.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-23Read Markdown152.47-21.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $119.36. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$119.36
Valuation
15.11 trailing · 11.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.3
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.53%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Boot Barn Holdings, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 16%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BOOT passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 79% discount to our $213.12 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-19 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 78.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +73% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-19 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Western boots still sell when pay cheques hold up
Picture a ranch hand or construction worker needing a new pair of durable boots and a work shirt that lasts. Boot Barn sits right in that lane, selling western and workwear across a growing store base. Revenue is rising 19 percent, margins sit at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent. Forward earnings trade at just 15.4 times, well below our fair value of 220 dollars against a current price near 152, giving a 44 percent margin of safety. The moderate moat and clean ethical screen add to the case for a business that keeps compounding through ordinary cycles.
Yet this remains a classic consumer cyclical name. Low multiples on peak earnings often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. A slowdown in discretionary spending or higher input costs could quickly compress those margins and growth rates that now look attractive.
Fourteen analysts carry a strong buy consensus with a 222 dollar median target, but the real test sits in how long the current spending environment lasts. Analysis, not advice.
BOOT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-24Markdown$119.36+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$119.36+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$119.36+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown · changed$119.36-0.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$119.96-1.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 25.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-08-23Markup · changed$164.04+7.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-23Markdown · changed$152.47-9.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-18Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
