Screened 2026-08-24 · the tape above runs as of 22:26 UTC · 7 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $161.81. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$161.81
Valuation
20.48 trailing · 16.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.3
Beta
1.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.53%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $216.70 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Western boots still sell when pay cheques hold up
Picture a ranch hand or construction worker needing a new pair of durable boots and a work shirt that lasts. Boot Barn sits right in that lane, selling western and workwear across a growing store base. Revenue is rising 19 percent, margins sit at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 18 percent. Forward earnings trade at just 15.4 times, well below our fair value of 220 dollars against a current price near 152, giving a 44 percent margin of safety. The moderate moat and clean ethical screen add to the case for a business that keeps compounding through ordinary cycles.
Yet this remains a classic consumer cyclical name. Low multiples on peak earnings often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. A slowdown in discretionary spending or higher input costs could quickly compress those margins and growth rates that now look attractive.
Fourteen analysts carry a strong buy consensus with a 222 dollar median target, but the real test sits in how long the current spending environment lasts. Analysis, not advice.
BOOT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$164.04+7.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-23Markdown · changed$152.47-9.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-18Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03Distribution$167.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$167.60Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
